Related papers: Rediscover Climate Change during Global Warming Sl…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
We propose a methodology for intercomparing climate models and evaluating their performance against benchmarks based on the use of the Wasserstein distance (WD). This distance provides a rigorous way to measure quantitatively the difference…
Understanding the dynamics and evolution of climate change and associated uncertainties is key for designing robust policy actions. Computer models are key tools in this scientific effort, which have now reached a high level of…
Wasserstein Discriminant Analysis (WDA) is a new supervised method that can improve classification of high-dimensional data by computing a suitable linear map onto a lower dimensional subspace. Following the blueprint of classical Linear…
The goal of this paper is to explore the potential multistability of the climate of a planet around the habitable zone. A thorough investigation of the thermodynamics of the climate system is performed for very diverse conditions of energy…
Understanding the risks posed by extreme rainfall events requires analysis of precipitation fields with high resolution (to assess localized hazards) and extensive historical coverage (to capture sufficient examples of rare occurrences).…
The validation of global climate models is crucial to ensure the accuracy and efficacy of model output. We introduce the spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to more comprehensively measure differences between climate models and…
We present here a novel statistical learning approach for detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change. Traditional optimal D&A studies try to directly model the observations from model simulations, but practically this is challenging…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
Change point detection for time series analysis is a difficult and important problem in applied statistics, for which a variety of approaches have been developed in the past several decades. Here, the Wasserstein metric is employed as a…
We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect a substantial bistability: for a…
Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was to take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of the climate system. This has led to fundamentally new ways to…
Climate change is a non-uniform phenomenon. This paper proposes a new quantitative methodology to characterize, measure, and test the existence of climate change heterogeneity. It consists of three steps. First, we introduce a new testable…
One of the defining features of both recent and historical cases of global climate change is Arctic Amplification (AA). This is the more rapid change in the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Arctic compared to some wider reference…
This paper delves into the application of adversarial domain adaptation (ADA) for enhancing credit risk assessment in financial institutions. It addresses two critical challenges: the cold start problem, where historical lending data is…
We explore the potential multistability of the climate for a planet around the habitable zone. We focus on conditions reminiscent to those of the Earth system, but our investigation aims at presenting a general methodology for dealing with…
The problem of quickest detection of a change in the distribution of a sequence of independent observations is considered. It is assumed that the pre-change distribution is known (accurately estimated), while the only information about the…
The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an…
The physics of planetary climate features a variety of complex systems that are challenging to model as they feature turbulent flows. A key example is the heat flux from the upper ocean to the underside of sea ice which provides a key…
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as…