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In the wake of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic, much work has been performed on the development of mathematical models for the simulation of the epidemic, and of disease models generally. Most works follow the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR)…
The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…
During 2020, the infection rate of COVID-19 has been investigated by many scholars from different research fields. In this context, reliable and interpretable forecasts of disease incidents are a vital tool for policymakers to manage…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has quickly become a global public health crisis unseen in recent years. It is known that the structure of the human contact network plays an important role in the spread of transmissible…
The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for a robust understanding of epidemic models. Current models of epidemics are classified as either mechanistic or non-mechanistic: mechanistic models make explicit assumptions on the dynamics…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increasing interest in the modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. The pandemic has made a significant impact on the way we behave and interact in our daily life. The past year has witnessed…
Several researches and evidence show the increasing likelihood of pandemics (large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease) which has far reaching sequels in all aspects of human lives ranging from rapid mortality rates to economic and social…
Across the world, scholars are racing to predict the spread of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19. Such predictions are often pursued by numerically simulating epidemics with a large number of plausible combinations of relevant parameters. It…
This study investigated the performance, explainability, and robustness of deployed artificial intelligence (AI) models in predicting mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The first study of its kind, we found that Bayesian…
Today's most troublesome population health challenges are often driven by social and environmental determinants, which are difficult to model using traditional epidemiological methods. We agree with those who have argued for the wider…
The recently proposed generalized epidemic modeling framework (GEMF) \cite{sahneh2013generalized} lays the groundwork for systematically constructing a broad spectrum of stochastic spreading processes over complex networks. This article…
Motivated by chemical reaction rules, we introduce a rule-based epidemiological framework for the systematic mathematical modelling of future pandemics. Here we stress that we do not have a specific model in mind, but a whole collection of…
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…
The COVID-19 pandemic left its unique mark on the 21st century as one of the most significant disasters in history, triggering governments all over the world to respond with a wide range of interventions. However, these restrictions come…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been ongoing for around 3 years, and has infected over 750 million people and caused over 6 million deaths worldwide at the time of writing. Throughout the pandemic, several strategies…
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which…
Advanced epidemic forecasting is critical for enabling precision containment strategies, highlighting its strategic importance for public health security. While recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated effectiveness…
With the outbreak of COVID-19, how to mitigate and suppress its spread is a big issue to the government. Department of public health need powerful models to model and predict the trend and scale of such pandemic. And models that could…
The spread of COVID-19 has been thwarted in most countries through non-pharmaceutical interventions. In particular, the most effective measures in this direction have been the stay-at-home and closure strategies of businesses and schools.…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…