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In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-22 Yves-Laurent Kom Samo , Stephen Roberts

We develop nonparametric Bayesian modelling approaches for Poisson processes, using weighted combinations of structured beta densities to represent the point process intensity function. For a regular spatial domain, such as the unit square,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Chunyi Zhao , Athanasios Kottas

We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2016-11-04 M. Amin Rahimian , Ali Jadbabaie

Large-scale Gaussian process inference has long faced practical challenges due to time and space complexity that is superlinear in dataset size. While sparse variational Gaussian process models are capable of learning from large-scale data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-23 Ching-An Cheng , Byron Boots

Bayesian models of cognition hypothesize that human brains make sense of data by representing probability distributions and applying Bayes' rule to find the best explanation for available data. Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Milad Kharratzadeh , Thomas R. Shultz

For dynamical systems that can be modelled as asymptotically stable linear systems forced by Gaussian noise, this paper develops methods to infer or estimate their modes from observations in real time. The modes can be real or complex. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-30 Robert S. MacKay

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

In this chapter, we consider probabilistic drift-diffusion models and Bayesian inference frameworks to address this issue, assisting better social human decision-making. We provide details of the models, as well as representative numerical…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-07-13 Thoa Thieu , Roderick Melnik

Neuroscience has recently made much progress, expanding the complexity of both neural-activity measurements and brain-computational models. However, we lack robust methods for connecting theory and experiment by evaluating our new big…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-06 Heiko H. Schütt , Alexander D. Kipnis , Jörn Diedrichsen , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

Understanding and interacting with everyday physical scenes requires rich knowledge about the structure of the world, represented either implicitly in a value or policy function, or explicitly in a transition model. Here we introduce a new…

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-02 Armin Lederer , Alejandro Jose Ordonez Conejo , Korbinian Maier , Wenxin Xiao , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

We study nonparametric Bayesian inference for the intensity function of a covariate-driven point process. We extend recent results from the literature, showing that a wide class of Gaussian priors, combined with flexible link functions,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Patric Dolmeta , Matteo Giordano

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Duncan A. Clark , Mark S. Handcock

Many recent models study the downstream projection from grid cells to place cells, while recent data has pointed out the importance of the feedback projection. We thus asked how grid cells are affected by the nature of the input from the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-07-16 Yedidyah Dordek , Ron Meir , Dori Derdikman

Spatial point pattern data are routinely encountered. A flexible regression model for the underlying intensity is essential to characterizing the spatial point pattern and understanding the impacts of potential risk factors on such pattern.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-15 Jieying Jiao , Guanyu Hu , Jun Yan

For a given homogeneous Poisson point process in $\mathbb{R}^d$ two points are connected by an edge if their distance is bounded by a prescribed distance parameter. The behaviour of the resulting random graph, the Gilbert graph or random…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-06 Matthias Reitzner , Matthias Schulte , Christoph Thaele

Computer experiments are often performed to allow modeling of a response surface of a physical experiment that can be too costly or difficult to run except using a simulator. Running the experiment over a dense grid can be prohibitively…

Applications · Statistics 2009-05-25 Robert B. Gramacy , Herbert K. H. Lee

The grid cells (GCs) of the medial entorhinal cortex (MEC) and place cells (PCs) of the hippocampus are key elements of the brain network for the metric representation of space. Currently, any of the existing theoretical models can explain…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-07-01 Andrey Stepanyuk

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-23 Daniel Hernández-Lobato , Pablo Morales-Mombiela , David Lopez-Paz , Alberto Suárez