Related papers: Improvements in Age-Specific Mortality at the Olde…
A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…
A MCMC approach is used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate ratio for German men and women with RA. For constructing priors, we calculate a range of admissible values from prevalence and incidence data based on about 60 million…
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…
Quantitative characterization of disease progression using longitudinal data can provide long-term predictions for the pathological stages of individuals. This work studies the robust modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression using…
In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
This research explores how total mortality figures relate to age-standardized death rates within the United States, using the complete historical record of national mortality statistics. Through a detailed investigation of both all-cause…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
This paper presents an application of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) for analyzing age-specific death rates (ASDRs), constituting a longitudinal dataset with repeated measurements over time. GEE models, known for their robustness in…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia. In all leading countries, it is one of the primary reasons of death in senior citizens. Currently, it is diagnosed by calculating the MSME score and by the manual study of MRI…
A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…
Aging is a multidimensional process where phenotypes change at varying rates. Longitudinal studies of aging typically involve following a cohort of individuals over the course of several years. This design is hindered by cost, attrition,…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
Recently, it has been shown that the transition rates of the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions are related to the percentages of people in the states by a three-dimensional system of differential equations [Bri24]. The aim of…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…
Neurodegeneration as measured through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recognized as a potential biomarker for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease (AD), but is generally considered less specific than amyloid or tau based biomarkers. Due to a…