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This paper proposes a novel method for demand forecasting in a pricing context. Here, modeling the causal relationship between price as an input variable to demand is crucial because retailers aim to set prices in a (profit) optimal manner…

As a firm varies the price of a product, consumers exhibit reference effects, making purchase decisions based not only on the prevailing price but also the product's price history. We consider the problem of learning such behavioral…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-31 Abbas Kazerouni , Benjamin Van Roy

This paper addresses a novel data science problem, prescriptive price optimization, which derives the optimal price strategy to maximize future profit/revenue on the basis of massive predictive formulas produced by machine learning. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-05-25 Shinji Ito , Ryohei Fujimaki

While data-driven decision-making is transforming modern operations, most large-scale data is of an observational nature, such as transactional records. These data pose unique challenges in a variety of operational problems posed as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-05-23 Dimitris Bertsimas , Nathan Kallus

Problem definition: We study a data-driven pricing problem in which a seller sets a price for a single item based on demand observed at a limited number of historical prices. Our goal is to quantify the value of such information and to…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Achraf Bahamou , Omar Besbes , Omar Mouchtaki

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yuxuan Wang , Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Wei Wang , Yizhou Wang

We address the challenging problem of dynamically pricing complementary items that are sequentially displayed to customers. An illustrative example is the online sale of flight tickets, where customers navigate through multiple web pages.…

We consider situations where consumers are aware that a statistical model determines the price of a product based on their observed behavior. Using a novel experiment varying the context similarity between participant data and a product, we…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-14 Inácio Bó , Li Chen , Rustamdjan Hakimov

Although behavioral economics has demonstrated that there are many situations where rational choice is a poor empirical model, it has so far failed to provide quantitative models of economic problems such as price formation. We make a step…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Szabolcs Mike , J. Doyne Farmer

This study addresses the interpretable estimation of price bounds in the context of price optimization. In recent years, price-optimization methods have become indispensable for maximizing revenue and profits. However, effective application…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Shunnosuke Ikeda , Naoki Nishimura , Shunji Umetani

We study the following fundamental data-driven pricing problem. How can/should a decision-maker price its product based on data at a single historical price? How valuable is such data? We consider a decision-maker who optimizes over…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-30 Amine Allouah , Achraf Bahamou , Omar Besbes

This paper studies the problem of procuring diverse resources in a forward market to cover a set $\bf{E}$ of uncertain demand signals $\bf{e}$. We consider two scenarios: (a) $\bf{e}$ is revealed all at once by an oracle (b) $\bf{e}$…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Sen Li , Akhil Shetty , Kameshwar Poolla , Pravin Varaiya

We study the problem when a firm sets prices for products based on the transaction data, i.e., which product past customers chose from an assortment and what were the historical prices that they observed. Our approach does not impose a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Ningyuan Chen , Andre Cire , Ming Hu , Saman Lagzi

In lending, where prices are specific to both customers and products, having a well-functioning personalized pricing policy in place is essential to effective business making. Typically, such a policy must be derived from observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Christopher Bockel-Rickermann , Sam Verboven , Tim Verdonck , Wouter Verbeke

In this paper we consider the problem of pricing multiple differentiated products. This is challenging as a price change in one product, not only changes the demand of that particular product, but also the demand for the other products. To…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-27 Ruben van de Geer , Sandjai Bhulai

We consider a periodical equilibrium pricing problem for multiple firms over a planning horizon of T periods. At each period, firms set their selling prices and receive stochastic demand from consumers. Firms do not know their underlying…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Yongge Yang , Yu-Ching Lee , Po-An Chen

We consider the problem of a firm seeking to use personalized pricing to sell an exogenously given stock of a product over a finite selling horizon to different consumer types. We assume that the type of an arriving consumer can be observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Ningyuan Chen , Guillermo Gallego

Price determination is a central research topic of revenue management in marketing. The important aspect in pricing is controlling the stochastic behavior of demand, and the previous studies have tackled price optimization problems with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-04 Yuya Hikima , Akiko Takeda

Pricing decisions stand out as one of the most critical tasks a company faces, particularly in today's digital economy. As with other business decision-making problems, pricing unfolds in a highly competitive and uncertain environment.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Daniel García Rasines , Roi Naveiro , David Ríos Insua , Simón Rodríguez Santana

Preferential Bayesian optimization allows optimization of objectives that are either expensive or difficult to measure directly, by relying on a minimal number of comparative evaluations done by a human expert. Generating candidate…

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