Related papers: Peak Value-at-Risk Estimation of Stochastic Proces…
This paper presents algorithms that upper-bound the peak value of a state function along trajectories of a continuous-time system with rational dynamics. The finite-dimensional but nonconvex peak estimation problem is cast as a convex…
The popularity of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk functional from finance, has been growing in the control systems community due to its intuitive interpretation and axiomatic foundation. We consider a nonstandard optimal control…
We introduce the Value-at-Risk Constrained Policy Optimization algorithm (VaR-CPO), a sample efficient and conservative method designed to optimize Value-at-Risk (VaR) constrained reinforcement learning (RL) problems. Empirically, we…
We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…
This paper develops a safety analysis method for stochastic systems that is sensitive to the possibility and severity of rare harmful outcomes. We define risk-sensitive safe sets as sub-level sets of the solution to a non-standard optimal…
This paper develops a method to upper-bound extreme-values of time-windowed risks for stochastic processes. Examples of such risks include the maximum average or 90% quantile of the current along a transmission line in any 5-minute window.…
Peak Estimation aims to find the maximum value of a state function achieved by a dynamical system. This problem is non-convex when considering standard Barrier and Density methods for invariant sets, and has been treated heuristically by…
Value-at-risk (VaR), also known as quantile, is a crucial risk measure in finance and other fields. However, optimizing VaR metrics in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is challenging because VaR is non-additive and the traditional dynamic…
We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…
Value-at-risk (VaR) is an established measure to assess risks in critical real-world applications with random environmental factors. This paper presents a novel VaR upper confidence bound (V-UCB) algorithm for maximizing the VaR of a…
This paper deals with the unconstrained and constrained cases for continuous-time Markov decision processes under the finite-horizon expected total cost criterion. The state space is denumerable and the transition and cost rates are allowed…
The entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) is a new coherent risk measure, which is an upper bound for both the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). As important properties, the EVaR is strongly monotone over its domain and…
This paper proposes an algorithm to calculate the maximal probability of unsafety with respect to trajectories of a stochastic process and a hazard set. The unsafe probability estimation problem is cast as a primal-dual pair of…
Risk measures are important key figures to measure the adequacy of the reserves of a company. The most common risk measures in practice are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recently, quantum-based algorithms are…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
We propose a risk-averse statistical learning framework wherein the performance of a learning algorithm is evaluated by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of losses rather than the expected loss. We devise algorithms based on stochastic…
Peak estimation of hybrid systems aims to upper bound extreme values of a state function along trajectories, where this state function could be different in each subsystem. This finite-dimensional but nonconvex problem may be lifted into an…
We consider continuous-time stochastic optimal control problems featuring Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in the objective. The major difficulty in these problems arises from time-inconsistency, which prevents us from directly using…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is one of the main regulatory tools used for risk management purposes. However, it is difficult to compute optimal VaR portfolios; that is, an optimal risk-reward portfolio allocation using VaR as the risk measure. This…
We consider the problem of risk-sensitive motion planning in the presence of randomly moving obstacles. To this end, we adopt a model predictive control (MPC) scheme and pose the obstacle avoidance constraint in the MPC problem as a…