Related papers: Modeling Population Movements under Uncertainty at…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and…
The impacts of mass migration, such as crisis induced by climate change, extend beyond environmental concerns and can greatly affect social infrastructure and public services, such as education, healthcare, and security. These crises…
Monitoring migration flows is crucial to respond to humanitarian crisis and to design efficient policies. This information usually comes from surveys and border controls, but timely accessibility and methodological concerns reduce its…
In the event of a disaster, saving human lives is of utmost importance. For developing proper evacuation procedures and guidance systems, behavioural data on how people respond during panic and stress is crucial. In the absence of real…
In 2020 tens of millions of migrants worldwide sought safety due to various push-pull factors such as economic, geographic, demographic, and societal challenges. Large movements of human flows toward national borders constitute a complex…
This paper presents a mixed-methodology to forecast illegal border crossings in Europe across five key migratory routes, with a one-year time horizon. The methodology integrates machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from…
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprepared and exposing significant shortcomings in the field of…
This paper describes an online tool for the visualization of medical emergency locations, randomly generated sample paths of medical emergencies, and the animation of ambulance movements under the control of various dispatch methods in…
Human migration is a type of human mobility, where a trip involves a person moving with the intention of changing their home location. Predicting human migration as accurately as possible is important in city planning applications,…
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of recent advancements in leveraging machine learning techniques, particularly Transformer models, for predicting human mobility patterns during epidemics. Understanding how people move during…
Timely population displacement estimates are critical for humanitarian response during disasters, but traditional surveys and field assessments are slow. Mobile phone data enables near real-time tracking, yet existing approaches apply…
Epidemiological models are an important tool in coping with epidemics, as they offer a forecast, even if often simplistic, of the behavior of the disease in the population. This allows responsible health agencies to organize themselves and…
Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human…
Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe…
Epidemiological models contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is…
When planning to change operations at ports there are two key stake holders with very different interests involved in the decision making processes. Port operators are attentive to their standards, a smooth service flow and economic…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
Homelessness is a humanitarian challenge affecting an estimated 1.6 billion people worldwide. In the face of rising homeless populations in developed nations and a strain on social services, government agencies are increasingly adopting…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed for crisis preparedness and response, particularly for multilingual communication. However, their suitability for high-stakes crisis contexts remains insufficiently evaluated. This work…