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We present a neural network based calibration method that performs the calibration task within a few milliseconds for the full implied volatility surface. The framework is consistently applicable throughout a range of volatility models…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-26 Blanka Horvath , Aitor Muguruza , Mehdi Tomas

The ability to construct a realistic simulator of financial exchanges, including reproducing the dynamics of the limit order book, can give insight into many counterfactual scenarios, such as a flash crash, a margin call, or changes in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Namid R. Stillman , Rory Baggott , Justin Lyon , Jianfei Zhang , Dingqiu Zhu , Tao Chen , Perukrishnen Vytelingum

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Gabriel Spadon , Shenda Hong , Bruno Brandoli , Stan Matwin , Jose F. Rodrigues-Jr , Jimeng Sun

Stock price prediction has been the focus of a large amount of research but an acceptable solution has so far escaped academics. Recent advances in deep learning have motivated researchers to apply neural networks to stock prediction. In…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-29 Firuz Kamalov , Linda Smail , Ikhlaas Gurrib

Building on our prior explorations of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for financial data processing, this paper introduces two significant enhancements to refine our CNN model's predictive performance and robustness for financial…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-23 Sina Montazeri , Haseebullah Jumakhan , Sonia Abrasiabian , Amir Mirzaeinia

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to model observations over time with non-linear patterns. Despite the widespread use of neural networks in such settings, most theoretical developments of deep neural networks are under the assumption…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Mingliang Ma , Abolfazl Safikhani

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task emerging from diverse data-driven applications. Many advanced autoregressive methods such as ARIMA were used to develop forecasting models. Recently, deep learning based methods such as DeepAr,…

Predicting a fast and accurate model for stock price forecasting is been a challenging task and this is an active area of research where it is yet to be found which is the best way to forecast the stock price. Machine learning, deep…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-13 Himanshu Gupta , Aditya Jaiswal

Models based on neural networks and machine learning are seeing a rise in popularity in space physics. In particular, the forecasting of geomagnetic indices with neural network models is becoming a popular field of study. These models are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Brecht Laperre , Jorge Amaya , Giovanni Lapenta

Transformer-based models have emerged as powerful tools for multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). However, existing Transformer models often fall short of capturing both intricate dependencies across variate and temporal dimensions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Juncheng Liu , Chenghao Liu , Gerald Woo , Yiwei Wang , Bryan Hooi , Caiming Xiong , Doyen Sahoo

Data normalization is one of the most important preprocessing steps when building a machine learning model, especially when the model of interest is a deep neural network. This is because deep neural network optimized with stochastic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-03 Dat Thanh Tran , Juho Kanniainen , Moncef Gabbouj , Alexandros Iosifidis

This work contributes to the development of neural forecasting models with novel randomization-based learning methods. These methods improve the fitting abilities of the neural model, in comparison to the standard method, by generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Grzegorz Dudek

In this paper, we address the challenge of multivariate time-series forecasting using quantum machine learning techniques. We introduce adaptation strategies that extend variational quantum circuit models, traditionally limited to…

We introduce twin neural network (TNN) regression. This method predicts differences between the target values of two different data points rather than the targets themselves. The solution of a traditional regression problem is then obtained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Sebastian J. Wetzel , Kevin Ryczko , Roger G. Melko , Isaac Tamblyn

This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-13 Wishnu Badrawani

We introduce Inflation, a Python library for assessing whether an observed probability distribution is compatible with a causal explanation. This is a central problem in both theoretical and applied sciences, which has recently witnessed…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Emanuel-Cristian Boghiu , Elie Wolfe , Alejandro Pozas-Kerstjens

Statistical methods such as the Box-Jenkins method for time-series forecasting have been prominent since their development in 1970. Many researchers rely on such models as they can be efficiently estimated and also provide interpretability.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-10 Indrajeet Y. Javeri , Mohammadhossein Toutiaee , Ismailcem B. Arpinar , Tom W. Miller , John A. Miller

Events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 or the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant losses to banks and insurance entities. They also demonstrated the importance of using accurate equity risk models and having a risk management…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-28 Eduardo Ramos-Pérez , Pablo J. Alonso-González , José Javier Núñez-Velázquez

We present a hierarchical architecture based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for predicting disaggregated inflation components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the majority of existing research is focused mainly on predicting…

General Economics · Economics 2022-02-18 Oren Barkan , Jonathan Benchimol , Itamar Caspi , Eliya Cohen , Allon Hammer , Noam Koenigstein

Adaptive inference is a promising technique to improve the computational efficiency of deep models at test time. In contrast to static models which use the same computation graph for all instances, adaptive networks can dynamically adjust…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-08-20 Hao Li , Hong Zhang , Xiaojuan Qi , Ruigang Yang , Gao Huang