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Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-27 Raquel YS Aoki , Renato M Assuncao , Pedro OS Vaz de Melo

The rankability of data is a recently proposed problem that considers the ability of a dataset, represented as a graph, to produce a meaningful ranking of the items it contains. To study this concept, a number of rankability measures have…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2022-03-15 Nathan McJames , David Malone , Oliver Mason

The forecasting of sports events is of broad interest from the applied but also from the theoretical perspective. In this work the question is addressed for the example of the German soccer Bundesliga how a theoretically optimum forecast of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-23 Andreas Heuer

Forecast of football outcomes in terms of Home Win, Draw and Away Win relies largely on ex ante probability elicitation of these events and ex post verification of them via computation of probability scoring rules (Brier, Ranked…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-09 Jean-Louis Foulley

Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-06-17 Leto Peel , Aaron Clauset

Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-07-19 Andreas Heuer , Oliver Rubner

In coalitional games, a player $i$ is regarded as strictly more desirable than player $j$ if substituting $j$ with $i$ within any coalition leads to a strict augmentation in the value of certain coalitions, while preserving the value of the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Michele Aleandri , Felix Fritz , Stefano Moretti

Volleyball is a team sport with unique and specific characteristics. We introduce a new two level-hierarchical Bayesian model which accounts for theses volleyball specific characteristics. In the first level, we model the set outcome with a…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-16 Leonardo Egidi , Ioannis Ntzoufras

The last decade has seen a revolution in the theory and application of machine learning and pattern recognition. Through these advancements, variable ranking has emerged as an active and growing research area and it is now beginning to be…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Giorgio Roffo

A ranking is an ordered sequence of items, in which an item with higher ranking score is more preferred than the items with lower ranking scores. In many information systems, rankings are widely used to represent the preferences over a set…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Zhiwei Lin , Yi Li , Xiaolian Guo

Ranking problems, also known as preference learning problems, define a widely spread class of statistical learning problems with many applications, including fraud detection, document ranking, medicine, credit risk screening, image ranking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-17 Tino Werner

A random walk-like model is considered to discuss statistical aspects of tournaments. The model is applied to soccer leagues with emphasis on the scores. This competitive system was computationally simulated and the results are compared…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-04-30 H. V. Ribeiro , R. S. Mendes , L. C. Malacarne , S. Picoli , P. A. Santoro

Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the {\em motivation} of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-30 Federico Fioravanti , Fernando Delbianco , Fernando Tohmé

Online competitive games have become increasingly popular. To ensure an exciting and competitive environment, these games routinely attempt to match players with similar skill levels. Matching players is often accomplished through a rating…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-08-18 Arman Dehpanah , Muheeb Faizan Ghori , Jonathan Gemmell , Bamshad Mobasher

The margin of victory of an election is a useful measure to capture the robustness of an election outcome. It also plays a crucial role in determining the sample size of various algorithms in post election audit, polling etc. In this work,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-05 Palash Dey , Y. Narahari

Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

Ranking entities such as algorithms, devices, methods, or models based on their performances, while accounting for application-specific preferences, is a challenge. To address this challenge, we establish the foundations of a universal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Sébastien Piérard , Anaïs Halin , Anthony Cioppa , Adrien Deliège , Marc Van Droogenbroeck

The pairwise winning indices, computed in the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis, give the probability with which an alternative is preferred to another taking into account all the instances of the assumed preference model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Sally Giuseppe Arcidiacono , Salvatore Corrente , Salvatore Greco

Using a simple game-theoretical model of contests, we compare the effort exerted by rugby teams under three different point systems used in tournaments around the world. The scoring systems under consideration are NB, +4 and 3+. We state…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-12-16 Federico Fioravanti , Fernando Delbianco , Alejandro Neme , Fernando Tohmé

In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-14 Manar D. Samad , Sumen Sen