Related papers: Exactly Optimal Quickest Change Detection of Marko…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such…
This study introduces a computationally efficient algorithm, delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC), designed to improve posterior simulation in quasi-Bayesian inference. Quasi-Bayesian methods, which do not require fully…
For the problem of sequential detection of changes, we adopt the probability maximizing approach in place of the classical minimization of the average detection delay, and propose modified versions of the Shiryaev, Lorden and Pollak…
The problem of quickest change detection in a sequence of independent observations is considered. The pre-change distribution is assumed to be known, while the post-change distribution is completely unknown. A window-limited leave-one-out…
A new approach is developed for evaluating the convergence rate for nonlinear Markov chains (MC) based on the recently developed spectral radius technique of markovian coupling for linear MC and the idea of small nonlinear perturbations of…
Verification of infinite-state Markov chains is still a challenge despite several fruitful numerical or statistical approaches. For decisive Markov chains, there is a simple numerical algorithm that frames the reachability probability as…
We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo-based deconvolution method designed to estimate the number of peaks in spectral data, along with the optimal parameters of each radial basis function. Assuming cases where the number of peaks is…
Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
This paper considers the problem of joint change detection and identification assuming multiple composite postchange hypotheses. We propose a multihypothesis changepoint detection-identification procedure that controls the probabilities of…
This paper addresses the problem of quickest change detection (QCD) at two spatially separated locations monitored by a single unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a sensor. At any location, the UAV observes i.i.d. data sequentially…
Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on…
We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…
This paper considers the change-point problem for finite sequences of networks. To avoid the difficulty of computing the normalization coefficient, such as in Exponential random graphical models (ERGMs) and Markov networks, we construct a…
This paper considers a sequence of random variables generated according to a common distribution. The distribution might undergo periods of transient changes at an unknown set of time instants, referred to as change-points. The objective is…
This paper investigates change point detection in state space models, in which the pre-change distribution $f^{\theta_0}$ is given, while the poster distribution $f^{\theta}$ after change is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon…
Posterior sampling is a task of central importance in Bayesian inference. For many applications in Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian transfer learning, the prior distribution is unknown and needs to be estimated from samples. In practice,…
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…
We study the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimator for numerical integration for functions that do not need to be square integrable w.r.t. the invariant distribution. For chains with a spectral gap we show that the absolute mean error…
Modern information systems generate large volumes of data with anomalies that occur at unknown points in time and have to be detected quickly and reliably with low false alarm rates. The paper develops a general theory of quickest…
The problem of quickest growing dynamic anomaly detection in sensor networks is studied. Initially, the observations at the sensors, which are sampled sequentially by the decision maker, are generated according to a pre-change distribution.…