English
Related papers

Related papers: On the Efficacy of Generalization Error Prediction…

200 papers

Performative prediction is a framework for learning models that influence the data they intend to predict. We focus on finding classifiers that are performatively stable, i.e. optimal for the data distribution they induce. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Gauthier Gidel

Machine learning is about forecasting. When the forecasts come with an evaluation metric the forecasts become useful. What are reasonable evaluation metrics? How do existing evaluation metrics relate? In this work, we provide a general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Rabanus Derr , Robert C. Williamson

In situations where forecasters are scored on the quality of their probabilistic predictions, it is standard to use `proper' scoring rules to perform such scoring. These rules are desirable because they give forecasters no incentive to lie…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-25 Spencer Greenberg

Understanding generalization in deep learning is arguably one of the most important questions in deep learning. Deep learning has been successfully adopted to a large number of problems ranging from pattern recognition to complex decision…

Compositional generalization is a fundamental trait in humans, allowing us to effortlessly combine known phrases to form novel sentences. Recent works have claimed that standard seq-to-seq models severely lack the ability to compositionally…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Arkil Patel , Satwik Bhattamishra , Phil Blunsom , Navin Goyal

The quality of training data is critical to the performance of machine learning models. In this paper, the Error Sensitivity Profile (ESP) is proposed. It quantifies the sensitivity of model performance to errors in a single feature or in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Andrea Maurino

Generalization to new samples is a fundamental rationale for statistical modeling. For this purpose, model validation is particularly important, but recent work in survey inference has suggested that simple aggregation of individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-15 Lauren Kennedy , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Score matching is a recently developed parameter learning method that is particularly effective to complicated high dimensional density models with intractable partition functions. In this paper, we study two issues that have not been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Siwei Lyu

The ETS has recently released new estimates of validities of the GRE for predicting cumulative graduate GPA. They average in the middle thirties - twice as high as those previously reported by a number of independent investigators. It is…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-20 Peter H. Schonemann , Moritz Heene

Inspired by recent strides in empirical efficacy of implicit learning in many robotics tasks, we seek to understand the theoretical benefits of implicit formulations in the face of nearly discontinuous functions, common characteristics for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Bibit Bianchini , Mathew Halm , Nikolai Matni , Michael Posa

Poor generalization is one symptom of models that learn to predict target variables using spuriously-correlated image features present only in the training distribution instead of the true image features that denote a class. It is often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Joseph D. Viviano , Becks Simpson , Francis Dutil , Yoshua Bengio , Joseph Paul Cohen

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Hongkang Yang

This paper addresses the asymptotic performance of popular spatial regression estimators of the linear effect of an exposure on an outcome under ``spatial confounding" -- the presence of an unmeasured spatially-structured variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-19 Brian Gilbert , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Abhirup Datta

Probabilistic classifiers output confidence scores along with their predictions, and these confidence scores should be calibrated, i.e., they should reflect the reliability of the prediction. Confidence scores that minimize standard metrics…

Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key result in this area shows that with accurate score estimates, SGMs can efficiently generate samples…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-08 Sinho Chewi , Alkis Kalavasis , Anay Mehrotra , Omar Montasser

Additive smooth models, such as Generalized additive models (GAMs) of location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), are a popular choice for modeling experimental data. However, software available to fit such models is usually not tailored…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Joshua Krause , Jelmer P. Borst , Jacolien van Rij

In order to scale standard Gaussian process (GP) regression to large-scale datasets, aggregation models employ factorized training process and then combine predictions from distributed experts. The state-of-the-art aggregation models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-05 Haitao Liu , Jianfei Cai , Yi Wang , Yew-Soon Ong

Generalization performance of classifiers in deep learning has recently become a subject of intense study. Deep models, typically over-parametrized, tend to fit the training data exactly. Despite this "overfitting", they perform well on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-18 Mikhail Belkin , Siyuan Ma , Soumik Mandal

Assessing model generalization under distribution shift is essential for real-world deployment, particularly when labeled test data is unavailable. This paper presents a unified and practical framework for unsupervised model evaluation and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Weijian Deng , Weijie Tu , Ibrahim Radwan , Mohammad Abu Alsheikh , Stephen Gould , Liang Zheng

We study sample efficient reinforcement learning (RL) under the general framework of interactive decision making, which includes Markov decision process (MDP), partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), and predictive state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Han Zhong , Wei Xiong , Sirui Zheng , Liwei Wang , Zhaoran Wang , Zhuoran Yang , Tong Zhang