Related papers: Revisiting and modeling power-law distributions in…
We investigate the relevance of {\sl self-organized criticality (SOC)} models in previously published empirical datasets, which includes statistical observations in astrophysics, geophysics, biophysics, sociophysics, and informatics. We…
The size distributions of power outages are shown to depend on the stress, or the proximity of the load of an electrical grid to complete breakdown. Using the data for the U.S. between 2002-2017, we show that the outage statistics are…
Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…
Power laws and distributions with heavy tails are common features of many experimentally studied complex systems, like the distribution of the sizes of earthquakes and solar flares, or the duration of neuronal avalanches in the brain.…
In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become…
When there is a fault, the protection system automatically removes one or more transmission lines on a fast time scale of less than one minute. The outaged lines form a pattern in the transmission network. We extract these patterns from…
Understanding the properties of response time distributions is a long-standing problem in cognitive science. We provide a tutorial overview of several contemporary models that assume power law scaling is a plausible description of the…
Carreras, Dobson and colleagues have studied empirical data on the sizes of the blackouts in real grids and modeled them by computer simulations using the direct current approximation. They have found that the resulting blackout sizes are…
We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times and evidence of…
A study on the behavior of off-site AC power failure recovery times at three nuclear plant sites is presented. It is shown, that power law is appropriate for the representation of failure frequency-duration correlation function of off-site…
This paper presents a data-driven approach for quantifying the resilience of distribution power grids to extreme weather events using two key metrics: (a) the number of outages and (b) restoration time. The method leverages historical…
Inspired by reliability issues in electric transmission networks, we use a probabilistic approach to study the occurrence of large failures in a stylized cascading failure model. In this model, lines have random capacities that initially…
We show how to use standard transmission line outage historical data to obtain the network topology in such a way that cascades of line outages can be easily located on the network. Then we obtain statistics quantifying how cascading…
Evaluating resilience in electric distribution systems under severe weather requires models that can connect network topology, hazard simulation, fragility modeling, restoration assumptions, repair strategy, and downstream consequences.…
We introduce a new microscopic model of the outages in transmission power grids. This model accounts for the automatic response of the grid to load fluctuations that take place on the scale of minutes, when the optimum power flow…
Power-law distributed cascade failures are well known in power-grid systems. Understanding this phenomena has been done by various DC threshold models, self-tuned at their critical point. Here we attempt to describe it using an AC threshold…
Over the last few decades power law distributions have been suggested as forming generative mechanisms in a variety of disparate fields, such as, astrophysics, criminology and database curation. However, fitting these heavy tailed…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and…
Expansion planning problems refer to the monetary and unit investment needed for energy production or storage. An inherent element in these problems is the element of stochasticity in various aspects, such as the generation output of the…
To study resilience with real data, it is necessary to group the individual outages recorded by utilities into events in which the outages bunch up and overlap due to extreme weather. We show how to automatically group utility outage data…