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Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Amanda Lenzi , Haavard Rue

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is critical for maintaining the reliability of modern IT infrastructures, where complex anomalies frequently arise in highly dynamic environments. In this paper, we present TShape, a novel framework…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Hang Cui , Jingjing Li , Haotian Si , Quan Zhou , Changhua Pei , Gaogang Xie , Dan Pei

Explainable AI (XAI) has a counterpart in analytical modeling which we refer to as model explainability. We tackle the issue of model explainability in the context of prediction models. We analyze a dataset of loans from a credit card…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Donald Kridel , Jacob Dineen , Daniel Dolk , David Castillo

Formal explainability guarantees the rigor of computed explanations, and so it is paramount in domains where rigor is critical, including those deemed high-risk. Unfortunately, since its inception formal explainability has been hampered by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-04 Xuanxiang Huang , Joao Marques-Silva

A rich line of research attempts to make deep neural networks more transparent by generating human-interpretable 'explanations' of their decision process, especially for interactive tasks like Visual Question Answering (VQA). In this work,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-10-31 Arjun Chandrasekaran , Viraj Prabhu , Deshraj Yadav , Prithvijit Chattopadhyay , Devi Parikh

Forecasting is an indispensable element of operational research (OR) and an important aid to planning. The accurate estimation of the forecast uncertainty facilitates several operations management activities, predominantly in supporting…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Xiaoqian Wang , Yanfei Kang , Fotios Petropoulos , Feng Li

Explainable AI is an evolving area that deals with understanding the decision making of machine learning models so that these models are more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. In particular, post-hoc model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Praharsh Nanavati , Ranjitha Prasad

Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-30 Yuyang Wang , Alex Smola , Danielle C. Maddix , Jan Gasthaus , Dean Foster , Tim Januschowski

Black-box deep neural networks excel in text classification, yet their application in high-stakes domains is hindered by their lack of interpretability. To address this, we propose Text Bottleneck Models (TBM), an intrinsically…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-04 Josh Magnus Ludan , Qing Lyu , Yue Yang , Liam Dugan , Mark Yatskar , Chris Callison-Burch

Mathematical optimization offers highly-effective tools for finding solutions for problems with well-defined goals, notably scheduling. However, optimization solvers are often unexplainable black boxes whose solutions are inaccessible to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Kristijonas Čyras , Dimitrios Letsios , Ruth Misener , Francesca Toni

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are rapidly transitioning from research prototypes to core components of critical decision-making systems, driven by their impressive zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, as their deployment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Jiawen Zhang , Zhenwei Zhang , Shun Zheng , Xumeng Wen , Jia Li , Jiang Bian

Despite the high accuracy offered by state-of-the-art deep natural-language models (e.g. LSTM, BERT), their application in real-life settings is still widely limited, as they behave like a black-box to the end-user. Hence, explainability is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Francesco Ventura , Salvatore Greco , Daniele Apiletti , Tania Cerquitelli

With the advancement of technology for artificial intelligence (AI) based solutions and analytics compute engines, machine learning (ML) models are getting more complex day by day. Most of these models are generally used as a black box…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-11 P. Sai Ram Aditya , Mayukha Pal

How can we explain the predictions of a machine learning model? When the data is structured as a multivariate time series, this question induces additional difficulties such as the necessity for the explanation to embody the time dependency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Jonathan Crabbé , Mihaela van der Schaar

With the growing pervasiveness of artificial intelligence, the ability to explain the inferences made by machine learning models has become increasingly important. Numerous techniques for model explainability have been proposed, with…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Nicola Rossberg , Bennett Kleinberg , Barry O'Sullivan , Luca Longo , Andrea Visentin

As machine learning methods see greater adoption and implementation in high stakes applications such as medical image diagnosis, the need for model interpretability and explanation has become more critical. Classical approaches that assess…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Sumedha Singla , Brian Pollack , Junxiang Chen , Kayhan Batmanghelich

The field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to improve the interpretability of black-box machine learning models. Building a heatmap based on the importance value of input features is a popular method for explaining the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Amirhossein Aminimehr , Pouya Khani , Amirali Molaei , Amirmohammad Kazemeini , Erik Cambria

Feature attribution analysis is critical for interpreting machine learning models and supporting reliable data-driven decisions. However, feature attribution measures often exhibit stochastic variation: different train--test splits, random…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-15 Lanxin Xiang , Liang Shi , Youhui Ye , Boyu Jiang , Dawei Zhou , Feng Guo

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often an integral part of modern decision support systems. The best-performing predictive models used in AI-based decision support systems lack transparency. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Tuwe Löfström , Helena Löfström , Ulf Johansson , Cecilia Sönströd , Rudy Matela

In recent years, the Shapley value and SHAP explanations have emerged as one of the most dominant paradigms for providing post-hoc explanations of black-box models. Despite their well-founded theoretical properties, many recent works have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 James Enouen , Yan Liu