Related papers: Theoretical tools for understanding the climate cr…
The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by…
Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…
Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…
Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
In many scenarios, it is necessary to monitor a complex system via a time-series of observations and determine when anomalous exogenous events have occurred so that relevant actions can be taken. Determining whether current observations are…
Climate change detection and attribution play a central role in establishing the causal influence of human activities on global warming. The dominant framework, optimal fingerprinting, is a linear errors-in-variables model in which each…
Promoting and increasing energy efficiency is a promising method of reducing CO2 emissions and avoiding the potentially devastating effects of climate change. The question is: How do we induce a cultural or behavioural change whereby people…
Climate change is one of the most critical challenges that our planet is facing today. Rising global temperatures are already bringing noticeable changes to Earth's weather and climate patterns with an increased frequency of unpredictable…
Climate science studies the structure and dynamics of Earth's climate system and seeks to understand how climate changes over time, where the data is usually stored in the format of time series, recording the climate features, geolocation,…
Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system,…
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
This essay fuses concepts and approaches used to describe fluctuating phenomena in climate systems and statistical mechanics, and explores new ideas essential for understanding such phenomena. Its starting points are the Langevin equation…
Climate science is critical for understanding both the causes and consequences of changes in global temperatures and has become imperative for decisive policy-making. However, climate science studies commonly require addressing complex…
Climate models are essential to understand and project climate change, yet long-standing biases and uncertainties in their projections remain. This is largely associated with the representation of subgrid-scale processes, particularly…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…
Fingerprints are key tools in climate change detection and attribution (D&A) that are used to determine whether changes in observations are different from internal climate variability (detection), and whether observed changes can be…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…