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Scientific experimentation is largely driven by statistical hypothesis testing to determine significant differences in interventions. Traditionally, experimenters allocate samples uniformly between each intervention. However, such an…

Real-world experiments involve batched & delayed feedback, non-stationarity, multiple objectives & constraints, and (often some) personalization. Tailoring adaptive methods to address these challenges on a per-problem basis is infeasible,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Ethan Che , Daniel R. Jiang , Hongseok Namkoong , Jimmy Wang

Adaptive experiments are used extensively in online platforms, healthcare and biotechnology, and a variety of other settings. In many of these applications, the main goal is not to precisely estimate a treatment effect, but to demonstrate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Guido Imbens , Lorenzo Masoero , Alexander Rakhlin , Thomas S. Richardson , Suhas Vijaykumar

Sampling from the equilibrium distribution has always been a major problem in molecular simulations due to the very high dimensionality of conformational space. Over several decades, many approaches have been used to overcome the problem.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-03-02 Adrià Pérez , Pablo Herrera-Nieto , Stefan Doerr , Gianni De Fabritiis

We study batched bandit experiments and consider the problem of inference conditional on the realized stopping time, assignment probabilities, and target parameter, where all of these may be chosen adaptively using information up to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jiafeng Chen , Isaiah Andrews

Adaptive treatment assignment algorithms, such as bandit algorithms, are increasingly used in digital health intervention clinical trials. Frequently, the data collected from these trials is used to conduct causal inference and related data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Kelly W. Zhang , Nowell Closser , Anna L. Trella , Susan A. Murphy

In this paper, we propose a novel perturbation-based exploration method in bandit algorithms with bounded or unbounded rewards, called residual bootstrap exploration (\texttt{ReBoot}). The \texttt{ReBoot} enforces exploration by injecting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-21 Chi-Hua Wang , Yang Yu , Botao Hao , Guang Cheng

Data that is gathered adaptively --- via bandit algorithms, for example --- exhibits bias. This is true both when gathering simple numeric valued data --- the empirical means kept track of by stochastic bandit algorithms are biased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-07 Seth Neel , Aaron Roth

Sampling is a fundamental problem in computer science and statistics. However, for a given task and stream, it is often not possible to choose good sampling probabilities in advance. We derive a general framework for adaptively changing the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-16 Daniel Ting

Innovations across science and industry are evaluated using randomized trials (a.k.a. A/B tests). While simple and robust, such static designs are inefficient or infeasible for testing many hypotheses. Adaptive designs can greatly improve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Jimmy Wang , Ethan Che , Daniel R. Jiang , Hongseok Namkoong

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Brian M Cho , Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus

Residual-based adaptive strategies are widely used in scientific machine learning but remain largely heuristic. We introduce a unifying variational framework that formalizes these methods by integrating convex transformations of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Juan Diego Toscano , Daniel T. Chen , Vivek Oommen , Jérôme Darbon , George Em Karniadakis

The multi-armed bandit problem is a core framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but classical algorithms often fail in environments with hidden, time-varying states that confound reward estimation and optimal action…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Jikai Jin , Kenneth Hung , Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy , Baoyi Shi , Congshan Zhang

We present a powerful general framework for designing data-dependent optimization algorithms, building upon and unifying recent techniques in adaptive regularization, optimistic gradient predictions, and problem-dependent randomization. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-14 Mehryar Mohri , Scott Yang

In performative prediction, the deployment of a predictive model triggers a shift in the data distribution. As these shifts are typically unknown ahead of time, the learner needs to deploy a model to get feedback about the distribution it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Meena Jagadeesan , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

In many biomedical, science, and engineering problems, one must sequentially decide which action to take next so as to maximize rewards. One general class of algorithms for optimizing interactions with the world, while simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-05 Iñigo Urteaga , Chris H. Wiggins

Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Umut A. Acar , Alexander T. Ihler , Ramgopal Mettu , Ozgur Sumer

Contextual bandits serve as a fundamental model for many sequential decision making tasks. The most popular theoretically justified approaches are based on the optimism principle. While these algorithms can be practical, they are known to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-17 Botao Hao , Tor Lattimore , Csaba Szepesvari

Motivated by modern applications such as computerized adaptive testing, sequential rank aggregation, and heterogeneous data source selection, we study the problem of active sequential estimation, which involves adaptively selecting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Xiaoou Li , Hongru Zhao

Datasets are often reused to perform multiple statistical analyses in an adaptive way, in which each analysis may depend on the outcomes of previous analyses on the same dataset. Standard statistical guarantees do not account for these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-19 Vitaly Feldman , Thomas Steinke
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