Related papers: Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of locall…
Deep learning has shown impressive results in a variety of time series forecasting tasks, where modeling the conditional distribution of the future given the past is the essence. However, when this conditional distribution is…
Building on ideas from Castillo and Nickl [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028], a method is provided to study nonparametric Bayesian posterior convergence rates when "strong" measures of distances, such as the sup-norm, are considered. In…
Wavelets provide the flexibility to analyse stochastic processes at different scales. Here, we apply them to multivariate point processes as a means of detecting and analysing unknown non-stationarity, both within and across data streams.…
A time-varying empirical spectral process indexed by classes of functions is defined for locally stationary time series. We derive weak convergence in a function space, and prove a maximal exponential inequality and a…
In this paper, we study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are piecewise constant functions on binary partitions. We analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution under a…
In this paper, we study the Bernstein polynomial model for estimating the multivariate distribution functions and densities with bounded support. As a mixture model of multivariate beta distributions, the maximum (approximate) likelihood…
State-of-the-art neural network-based methods for learning summary statistics have delivered promising results for simulation-based likelihood-free parameter inference. Existing approaches require density estimation as a post-processing…
Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are used to model dynamic systems appearing in engineering, physics, biomedical sciences and many other fields. These equations contain unknown parameters, say $\bm\theta$ of physical significance…
Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…
We consider the problem of the Bayesian inference of drift and diffusion coefficient functions in a stochastic differential equation given discrete observations of a realisation of its solution. We give conditions for the well-posedness and…
We propose a new measure for stationarity of a functional time series, which is based on an explicit representation of the $L^2$-distance between the spectral density operator of a non-stationary process and its best ($L^2$-)approximation…
For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
Tracer-kinetic analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging data is commonly performed with the well-known Tofts model and nonlinear least squares (NLLS) regression. This approach yields point estimates of model…
A class of multivariate spectral representations for real-valued nonstationary random variables is introduced, which is characterised by a general complex Gaussian distribution. In this way, the temporal signal properties -- harmonicity,…
In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…
We present a nonlinear dynamical approximation method for time-dependent Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). The approach makes use of parametrized decoder functions, and provides a general, and principled way of understanding and…
A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…