Related papers: Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of locall…

In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform…

It is increasingly being realised that many real world time series are not stationary and exhibit evolving second-order autocovariance or spectral structure. This article introduces a Bayesian approach for modelling the evolving wavelet…

We consider the Bayesian nonparametric estimation of a nonlinear reaction function in a reaction-diffusion stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). The likelihood is well-defined and tractable by the infinite-dimensional Girsanov…

We consider the problem of estimating cross-spectral quantities in the low-frequency regime, where long observation times limit averaging over large ensembles of periodograms, thereby preventing the use of approximate Gaussian statistics.…

In this paper we propose a nonparametric procedure for validating the assumption of stationarity in multivariate locally stationary time series models. We develop a bootstrap assisted test based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic, which…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

Bayesian density deconvolution using nonparametric prior distributions is a useful alternative to the frequentist kernel based deconvolution estimators due to its potentially wide range of applicability, straightforward uncertainty…

We present an approach for synthesising observational data with elastodynamic finite element models by extending the statistical finite element method (statFEM) framework. The proposed formulation adopts a Bayesian filtering approach to…

We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

This paper presents a parametric estimation method for ill-observed linear stationary Hawkes processes. When the exact locations of points are not observed, but only counts over time intervals of fixed size, methods based on the likelihood…

The Whittle likelihood is a widely used and computationally efficient pseudo-likelihood. However, it is known to produce biased parameter estimates for large classes of models. We propose a method for de-biasing Whittle estimates for…

The standard noise model in gravitational wave (GW) data analysis assumes detector noise is stationary and Gaussian distributed, with a known power spectral density (PSD) that is usually estimated using clean off-source data. Real GW data…

This invited paper proposes and discusses several Bayesian attempts at nonparametric and semiparametric density estimation. The main categories of these ideas are as follows: 1) Build a nonparametric prior around a given parametric model.…

This article considers a nonparametric method for detecting change points in non-stationary time series. The proposed method will divide the time series into several segments so that between two adjacent segments, the normalized spectral…

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

In this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian…

Locally stationary (LSPs) constitute an essential modeling paradigm for capturing the nuanced dynamics inherent in time series data whose statistical characteristics, including mean and variance, evolve smoothly across time. In this paper,…

The second-order dependence structure of purely nondeterministic stationary process is described by the coefficients of the famous Wold representation. These coefficients can be obtained by factorizing the spectral density of the process.…

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…