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Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Researchers are often interested in learning not only the effect of treatments on outcomes, but also the pathways through which these effects operate. A mediator is a variable that is affected by treatment and subsequently affects outcome.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-22 Jeremiah Jones , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

Linear regression is one of the most prevalent techniques in machine learning, however, it is also common to use linear regression for its \emph{explanatory} capabilities rather than label prediction. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is often…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-08-23 Or Sheffet

Consider a high-dimensional linear regression problem, where the number of covariates is larger than the number of observations and the interest is in estimating the conditional variance of the response variable given the covariates. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-29 David Azriel

In a unified framework, we provide estimators and confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects when the outcome of interest, typically a duration, is subjected to right censoring. Our methodology accommodates average, distributional,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-04 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

The concept of out-of-time-ordered correlation (OTOC) function is treated as a very strong theoretical probe of quantum randomness, using which one can study both chaotic and non-chaotic phenomena in the context of quantum statistical…

Propensity score methods have been shown to be powerful in obtaining efficient estimators of average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data, especially under the existence of confounding factors. When estimating, deciding which type…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-14 Kangjie Zhou , Jinzhu Jia

The empirical literature on program evaluation limits its scope almost exclusively to models where treatment effects are homogenous for observationally identical individuals. This paper considers a treatment effect model in which treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-20 Jason Abrevaya , Haiqing Xu

Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Andrew Stirn , Hans-Hermann Wessels , Megan Schertzer , Laura Pereira , Neville E. Sanjana , David A. Knowles

After variable selection, standard inferential procedures for regression parameters may not be uniformly valid; there is no finite-sample size at which a standard test is guaranteed to approximately attain its nominal size. This problem is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-07 Oliver Dukes , Vahe Avagyan , Stijn Vansteelandt

The traditional model specification of stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials assumes a homogeneous treatment effect across time while adjusting for fixed-time effects. However, when treatment effects vary over time, the constant effect…

We propose and implement an approach to inference in linear instrumental variables models which is simultaneously robust and computationally tractable. Inference is based on self-normalization of sample moment conditions, and allows for…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-29 Eric Gautier , Christiern Rose

Accurate heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is essential for personalized recommendations, making it important to evaluate and compare HTE estimators. Traditional assessment methods are inapplicable due to missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Zijun Gao

The research is about a systematic investigation on the following issues. First, we construct different outcome regression-based estimators for conditional average treatment effect under, respectively, true (oracle), parametric,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Lu Li , Niwen Zhou , Lixing Zhu

Typically, a randomized experiment is designed to test a hypothesis about the average treatment effect and sometimes hypotheses about treatment effect variation. The results of such a study may then be used to inform policy and practice for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Elizabeth Tipton , Michalis Mamakos

This paper extends standard results from learning theory with independent data to sequences of dependent data. Contrary to most of the literature, we do not rely on mixing arguments or sequential measures of complexity and derive uniform…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Fabien Lauer

We consider heteroscedastic nonparametric regression models, when both the mean function and variance function are unknown and to be estimated with nonparametric approaches. We derive convergence rates of posterior distributions for this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-07 Yuao Hu

We extend Fisher's randomization test (FRT) to test conditional independence between observed outcomes and treatments given covariates in both randomized experiments and observational studies, with no restriction on the variable type of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Zhen Zhong

We show, using three empirical applications, that linear regression estimates predicated on the assumption of sparsity are fragile in two ways. First, we document that different choices of the regressor matrix which do not impact ordinary…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-14 Michal Kolesár , Ulrich K. Müller , Sebastian T. Roelsgaard

Heterogeneous treatment effects can be very important in the analysis of randomized clinical trials. Heightened risks or enhanced benefits may exist for particular subsets of study subjects. When the heterogeneous treatment effects are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Richard A. Berk , Matthew Olson , Andreas Buja , Aurelie Ouss