Related papers: Forecasting COVID-19 Case Counts Based on 2020 Ont…
In this work we evaluate the applicability of an ensemble of population models and machine learning models to predict the near future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular use case in Spain. We rely solely in open and public…
We propose a forecasting method for predicting epidemiological health series on a two-week horizon at the regional and interregional resolution. The approach is based on model order reduction of parametric compartmental models, and is…
As the COVID-19 outbreak evolves around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) and its Member States have been heavily relying on staying at home and lock down measures to control the spread of the virus. In the last months, various…
In late 2019, COVID-19, a severe respiratory disease, emerged, and since then, the world has been facing a deadly pandemic caused by it. This ongoing pandemic has had a significant effect on different aspects of societies. The uncertainty…
Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…
COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our society. Before vaccines were available, the main disease intervention strategies were non-pharmaceutical. Starting December 2020,…
Social distancing and stay-at-home are among the few measures that are known to be effective in checking the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 in a given population. The patterns of dependency between such measures and their effects on…
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most challenging healthcare crises during the 21st century. As the virus continues to spread on a global scale, the majority of efforts have been on the development of vaccines and the mass immunization…
The impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 on health has been widely concerned. Disease risk assessment, prediction, and early warning have become a significant research field. Previous research suggests that there is a relationship between air…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
Since the first outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019, data has been made available on the number of infections, deaths and recoveries for all countries of the World, and that data can be used for statistical analysis. The…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate…
COVID-19 has challenged health systems to learn how to learn. This paper describes the context, methods and challenges for learning to improve COVID-19 care at one academic health center. Challenges to learning include: (1) choosing a right…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus. It is similar to influenza viruses and raises concerns through alarming levels of spread and severity resulting in an ongoing pandemic…
The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined,…
Since December of 2019, novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 has spread around the world infecting millions of people and upending the global economy. One of the driving reasons behind its high rate of infection is due to the unreliability…
In temperate climates, infection rates of enveloped viruses peak during the winter. While these seasonal trends are established in influenza and human coronaviruses, the mechanisms driving the variation remain poorly understood and thus…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
Since February 2020, the world has been engaged in an intense struggle with the COVID-19 dis-ease, and health systems have come under tragic pressure as the disease turned into a pandemic. The aim of this study is to obtain the most…
As multiple adverse events in 2021 illustrated, virtually all aspects of our societal functioning -- from water and food security to energy supply to healthcare -- more than ever depend on the dynamics of environmental factors.…