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This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying deep neural networks in safety-critical settings. Although methods like Deep Ensembles achieve strong UQ performance, their high computational and memory costs hinder scalability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Firas Gabetni , Giuseppe Curci , Andrea Pilzer , Subhankar Roy , Elisa Ricci , Gianni Franchi

Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Arman Mohammadi , Mattias Krysander , Daniel Jung , Erik Frisk

Assessing the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks is crucial for safety-related applications of deep learning. Although Bayesian deep learning offers a principled framework for estimating model uncertainty, the common approaches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Yookoon Park , David M. Blei

Despite the recent improvements in overall accuracy, deep learning systems still exhibit low levels of robustness. Detecting possible failures is critical for a successful clinical integration of these systems, where each data point…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-14 Alain Jungo , Mauricio Reyes

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Ensemble disagreement is widely used as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty in medical image segmentation. In practice, many studies form ensembles via K-fold cross-validation (CV), yet refer to them as ``deep ensembles'' (DE). Because CV…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Tristan Kirscher , Markus Bujotzek , Yannick Kirchhoff , Maximilian Rokuss , Fabian Isensee , Kim-Celine Kahl , Balint Kovacs , Klaus Maier-Hein

Deep learning architectures have proved versatile in a number of drug discovery applications, including the modelling of in vitro compound activity. While controlling for prediction confidence is essential to increase the trust,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-23 Isidro Cortes-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

Instance segmentation has witnessed promising advancements through deep neural network-based algorithms. However, these models often exhibit incorrect predictions with unwarranted confidence levels. Consequently, evaluating prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Qasim M. K. Siddiqui , Sebastian Starke , Peter Steinbach

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-20 Luhuan Wu , Sinead Williamson

Automated medical image segmentation, specifically using deep learning, has shown outstanding performance in semantic segmentation tasks. However, these methods rarely quantify their uncertainty, which may lead to errors in downstream…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-06-25 Zach Eaton-Rosen , Felix Bragman , Sotirios Bisdas , Sebastien Ourselin , M. Jorge Cardoso

The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Siddhartha Jain , Ge Liu , Jonas Mueller , David Gifford

The linear ensemble based strategy, i.e., averaging ensemble, has been proposed to improve the performance in unsupervised domain adaptation tasks. However, a typical UDA task is usually challenged by dynamically changing factors, such as…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-16 Weimin Wu , Jiayuan Fan , Tao Chen , Hancheng Ye , Bo Zhang , Baopu Li

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), despite their tremendous success in recent years, could still cast doubts on their predictions due to the intrinsic uncertainty associated with their learning process. Ensemble techniques and post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Chunwei Ma , Ziyun Huang , Jiayi Xian , Mingchen Gao , Jinhui Xu

The ability to detect Out-of-Distribution (OOD) data is important in safety-critical applications of deep learning. The aim is to separate In-Distribution (ID) data drawn from the training distribution from OOD data using a measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Guoxuan Xia , Christos-Savvas Bouganis

Ensemble models comprising of deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have shown significant improvements in model generalization but at the cost of large computation and memory requirements. In this paper, we present a framework for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-03 Umar Asif , Jianbin Tang , Stefan Harrer

This paper questions the effectiveness of a modern predictive uncertainty quantification approach, called \emph{evidential deep learning} (EDL), in which a single neural network model is trained to learn a meta distribution over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Maohao Shen , J. Jon Ryu , Soumya Ghosh , Yuheng Bu , Prasanna Sattigeri , Subhro Das , Gregory W. Wornell

Neural networks can learn spurious correlations in the data, often leading to performance degradation for underrepresented subgroups. Studies have demonstrated that the disparity is amplified when knowledge is distilled from a complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Patrik Kenfack , Ulrich Aïvodji , Samira Ebrahimi Kahou

Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Kirill Fedyanin , Evgenii Tsymbalov , Maxim Panov

The estimation of 6D object poses is a fundamental task in many computer vision applications. Particularly, in high risk scenarios such as human-robot interaction, industrial inspection, and automation, reliable pose estimates are crucial.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Kira Wursthorn , Markus Hillemann , Markus Ulrich