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Currently, there are no convincing proxies for the fundamentals of cryptocurrency assets. We propose a new market-to-fundamental ratio, the price-to-utility (PU) ratio, utilizing unique blockchain accounting methods. We then proxy various…

General Economics · Economics 2023-07-11 Yulin Liu , Luyao Zhang

The Web is a vast virtual space where people can share their opinions, impacting all aspects of life and having implications for marketing and communication. The most up-to-date and comprehensive information can be found on social media…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Melvin Mokhtari , Ali Seraj , Niloufar Saeedi , Adel Karshenas

We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Chongyang Bai , Tommy White , Linda Xiao , V. S. Subrahmanian , Ziheng Zhou

Cryptocurrencies fluctuate in markets with high price volatility, posing significant challenges for investors. To aid in informed decision-making, systems predicting cryptocurrency market movements have been developed, typically focusing on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Amit Kumar , Taoran Ji

This work is the first study on the effects of attacks on cryptocurrencies as expressed in the sentiments and emotions of social media users. Our goals are to design the methodologies for the study including data collection, conduct…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Zsofia Baruwa , Sanjay Bhattacherjee , Sahil Rey Chandnani , Zhen Zhu

In this paper, we study the ability to make the short-term prediction of the exchange price fluctuations towards the United States dollar for the Bitcoin market. We use the data of realized volatility collected from one of the largest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-08 Tian Guo , Albert Bifet , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

In this work, we propose to apply a new model fusion and learning paradigm, known as Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA), to the field of Bitcoin price prediction. Price prediction of financial product has always been a big topic in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Yuanhong Wu , Wei Ye , Jingyan Xu , D. Frank Hsu

In this paper, we present computational models to predict Twitter users' attitude towards a specific brand through their personal and social characteristics. We also predict their likelihood to take different actions based on their…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-04-18 Jalal Mahmud , Geli Fei , Anbang Xu , Aditya Pal , Michelle Zhou

Sentiment analysis can be used for stock market prediction. However, existing research has not studied the impact of a user's financial background on sentiment-based forecasting of the stock market using artificial neural networks. In this…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-05 Ziyuan Ma , Conor Ryan , Jim Buckley , Muslim Chochlov

Cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a new wave of price volatility and interest; activity within social media communities relating to cryptocurrencies has increased significantly. There is currently limited documented knowledge of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-07-02 Ross C. Phillips , Denise Gorse

Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing rapid growth, but this expansion comes with significant challenges, particularly in predicting cryptocurrency prices for traders in the U.S. In this study, we explore how deep learning and machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Md Zahidul Islam , Md Shafiqur Rahman , Md Sumsuzoha , Babul Sarker , Md Rafiqul Islam , Mahfuz Alam , Sanjib Kumar Shil

This paper proposes a novel adaptive algorithm for the automated short-term trading of financial instrument. The algorithm adopts a semantic sentiment analysis technique to inspect the Twitter posts and to use them to predict the behaviour…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-01-17 Paolo Cremonesi , Chiara Francalanci , Alessandro Poli , Roberto Pagano , Luca Mazzoni , Alberto Maggioni , Mehdi Elahi

Nowadays, people from all around the world use social media sites to share information. Twitter for example is a platform in which users send, read posts known as tweets and interact with different communities. Users share their daily…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Antony Samuels , John Mcgonical

This study proposes a hybrid deep learning model for forecasting the price of Bitcoin, as the digital currency is known to exhibit frequent fluctuations. The models used are the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and the Long Short-Term…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-21 Emmanuel Boadi

This paper studies how to forecast daily closing price series of Bitcoin, using data on prices and volumes of prior days. Bitcoin price behaviour is still largely unexplored, presenting new opportunities. We compared our results with two…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-07 Nicola Uras , Lodovica Marchesi , Michele Marchesi , Roberto Tonelli

Cryptocurrencies are distributed systems that allow exchanges of native tokens among participants, or the exchange of such tokens for fiat currencies in markets external to these public ledgers. The availability of their complete historical…

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of a novel method called linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) on the accuracy of intraday price movement prediction of cryptocurrencies. To do this, the 1-minute interval…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-09 Marcell T. Kurbucz , Péter Pósfay , Antal Jakovác

A model is proposed for Bitcoin prices that takes into account market attention. Market attention, modeled by a mean-reverting Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes, affects the volatility of Bitcoin returns, with some delay. The model is affine and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-17 Alvaro Guinea Julia , Alet Roux

Prediction of stock prices has been a crucial and challenging task, especially in the case of highly volatile digital currencies such as Bitcoin. This research examineS the potential of using neural network models, namely LSTMs and GRUs, to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-15 Ali Mohammadjafari

What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-08-11 David Garcia , Claudio Juan Tessone , Pavlin Mavrodiev , Nicolas Perony
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