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Accurate prediction of future agent trajectories is a critical challenge for ensuring safe and efficient autonomous navigation, particularly in complex urban environments characterized by multiple plausible future scenarios. In this paper,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Haichuan Li , Tomi Westerlund

Human motion and behaviour in crowded spaces is influenced by several factors, such as the dynamics of other moving agents in the scene, as well as the static elements that might be perceived as points of attraction or obstacles. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-05-09 Federico Bartoli , Giuseppe Lisanti , Lamberto Ballan , Alberto Del Bimbo

Predicting human displacements is crucial for addressing various societal challenges, including urban design, traffic congestion, epidemic management, and migration dynamics. While predictive models like deep learning and Markov models…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-08-07 Sebastiano Bontorin , Simone Centellegher , Riccardo Gallotti , Luca Pappalardo , Bruno Lepri , Massimiliano Luca

Accurate traffic participant prediction is the prerequisite for collision avoidance of autonomous vehicles. In this work, we predict pedestrians by emulating their own motion planning. From online observations, we infer a mixture density…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Eike Rehder , Florian Wirth , Martin Lauer , Christoph Stiller

The behavior of pedestrians shows certain regularities, which can be described by quantitative (partly stochastic) models. The models are based on the behavior of individual pedestrians, which depends on the pedestrian intentions and on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing

Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-10 Yichuan Charlie Tang , Ruslan Salakhutdinov

Stochastic models of diffusion are routinely used to study dispersal of populations, including populations of animals, plants, seeds and cells. Advances in imaging and field measurement technologies mean that data are often collected across…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2026-05-18 Matthew J Simpson , Michael J Plank

Pedestrian behavior prediction is one of the major challenges for intelligent driving systems in urban environments. Pedestrians often exhibit a wide range of behaviors and adequate interpretations of those depend on various sources of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-02 Amir Rasouli , Tiffany Yau , Mohsen Rohani , Jun Luo

Road user trajectory prediction in dynamic environments is a challenging but crucial task for various applications, such as autonomous driving. One of the main challenges in this domain is the multimodal nature of future trajectories…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Younwoo Choi , Ray Coden Mercurius , Soheil Mohamad Alizadeh Shabestary , Amir Rasouli

Traffic forecasting is a challenging spatio-temporal modeling task and a critical component of urban transportation management. Current studies mainly focus on deterministic predictions, with limited considerations on the uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Weijiang Xiong , Robert Fonod , Nikolas Geroliminis

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mengyang Gu , Yizi Lin , Victor Chang Lee , Diana Qiu

Trajectories are nowadays valuable information for a wide range of applications. However they are also inherently sensitive, as they contain highly personal information about individuals. Facing this challenge, synthesizing mobility…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Florent Guépin , Cheick Tidiani Cisse , Denis Renaud , François Bidet , Arnaud Legendre

The ability to forecast a set of likely yet diverse possible future behaviors of an agent (e.g., future trajectories of a pedestrian) is essential for safety-critical perception systems (e.g., autonomous vehicles). In particular, a set of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Ye Yuan , Kris Kitani

Learning Path Recommendation (LPR) is critical for personalized education, yet current methods often fail to account for historical interaction uncertainty (e.g., lucky guesses or accidental slips) and lack adaptability to diverse learning…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Xiangrui Xiong , Hang Liang , Baiyang Chen , Zifei Pan , Yanli Lee

Multidimensional data is often associated with uncertainties that are not well-described by normal distributions. In this work, we describe how such distributions can be projected to a low-dimensional space using uncertainty-aware principal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-15 Daniel Klötzl , Ozan Tastekin , David Hägele , Marina Evers , Daniel Weiskopf

Pervasive integration of GPS-enabled devices and data acquisition technologies has led to an exponential increase in GPS trajectory data, fostering advancements in spatial-temporal data mining research. Nonetheless, GPS trajectories contain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Yuanshao Zhu , Yongchao Ye , Shiyao Zhang , Xiangyu Zhao , James J. Q. Yu

We propose a modeling framework for stochastic systems, termed Gaussian behaviors, that describes finite-length trajectories of a system as a Gaussian process. The proposed model naturally quantifies the uncertainty in the trajectories, yet…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-02 András Sasfi , Ivan Markovsky , Alberto Padoan , Florian Dörfler

Quantitatively modeling the trajectories and behavior of pedestrians walking in crowds is an outstanding fundamental challenge deeply connected with the physics of flowing active matter, from a scientific point of view, and having societal…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-05 Alessandro Corbetta , Lars Schilders , Federico Toschi

In order to predict a pedestrian's trajectory in a crowd accurately, one has to take into account her/his underlying socio-temporal interactions with other pedestrians consistently. Unlike existing work that represents the relevant…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-25 Yuke Li , Lixiong Chen , Guangyi Chen , Ching-Yao Chan , Kun Zhang , Stefano Anzellotti , Donglai Wei

Data driven methods for time series forecasting that quantify uncertainty open new important possibilities for robot tasks with hard real time constraints, allowing the robot system to make decisions that trade off between reaction time and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-08 Sebastian Gomez-Gonzalez , Sergey Prokudin , Bernhard Scholkopf , Jan Peters
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