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We study a dynamic model of a non-life insurance portfolio. The foundation of the model is a compound Poisson process that represents the claims side of the insurer. To introduce clusters of claims appearing, e.g. with catastrophic events,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-03 Jonathan Klinge , Maren Diane Schmeck

The paper deals with a generalization of the risk model with stochastic premiums where dividends are paid according to a multi-layer dividend strategy. First of all, we derive piecewise integro-differential equations for the Gerber--Shiu…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Olena Ragulina

In this paper we introduce a mixture cure model with a linear hazard rate regression model for the event times. Cure models are statistical models for event times that take into account that a fraction of the population might never…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-26 Emil Aas Stoltenberg

Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-06 Yunyun Wang , Tatsushi Oka , Dan Zhu

We derive formulas for the moments of the ruin time in a L\'evy risk model and use these to determine the asymptotic behavior of the moments of the ruin time as the initial capital tends to infinity. In the special case of the perturbed…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-02 Philipp Lukas Strietzel , Anita Behme

We study the problem of minimizing the discounted probability of exponential Parisian ruin, that is, the discounted probability that an insurer's surplus exhibits an excursion below zero in excess of an exponentially distributed clock. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-07 Xiaoqing Liang , Virginia R. Young

We consider the problem of an agent who faces losses in continuous time over a finite time horizon and may choose to share some of these losses with a counterparty. The agent is uncertain about the true loss distribution and has multiple…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-13 Emma Kroell , Sebastian Jaimungal , Silvana M. Pesenti

We study the rough asymptotic behaviour of a general economic risk model in a discrete setting. Both financial and insurance risks are taken into account. Loss during the first $n$ years is modelled as a random variable…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-25 Jaakko Lehtomaa

In this paper, we investigate the ruin probabilities of non-homogeneous risk models. By employing martingale method, the Lundberg-type inequalities of ruin probabilities of non-homogeneous renewal risk models are obtained under weak…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-05 Qianqian Zhou , Alexander Sakhanenko , Junyi Guo

In this paper, we consider the perturbed renewal risk process. Systems of integro-differential equations for the Gerber-Shiu functions at ruin caused by a claim and oscillation are established, respectively. The explicit Laplase transforms…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-03-07 Min Song

In this paper, we consider the problem of experience rating within the classic Markov chain life insurance framework. We begin by establishing a link between mixed Poisson distributions and the problem of pricing group disability insurance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Christian Furrer , Jacob Juhl Sørensen , Jorge Yslas

Probabilistic model checking traditionally verifies properties on the expected value of a measure of interest. This restriction may fail to capture the quality of service of a significant proportion of a system's runs, especially when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Xiaotong Ji , Hanchun Wang , Antonio Filieri , Ilenia Epifani

In this paper, we study finite-time ruin probabilities for the compound Markov binomial risk model - a discrete-time model where claim sizes are modulated by a finite-state ergodic Markov chain. In the classic (non-modulated) case, the risk…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-23 Zbigniew Palmowski , Lewis Ramsden , Apostolos D. Papaioannou

We study a reinsurer who faces multiple sources of model uncertainty. The reinsurer offers contracts to $n$ insurers whose claims follow compound Poisson processes representing both idiosyncratic and systemic sources of loss. As the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-03 Emma Kroell , Sebastian Jaimungal , Silvana M. Pesenti

The field of risk theory has traditionally focused on ruin-related quantities. In particular, the socalled Expected Discounted Penalty Function has been the object of a thorough study over the years. Although interesting in their own right,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-27 Zied Ben-Salah , Hélène Guérin , Manuel Morales , Hassan Omidi Firouzi

Using the results of precise large deviation and renewal theory for widely dependent random variables, this paper obtains the asymptotic estimation of the random-time ruin probability and the uniform asymptotic estimation of finite-time…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Yang Chen , Zhaolei Cui , Yuebao Wang

This article addresses the probabilistic nature of fatigue life in structures subjected to cyclic loading with variable amplitude. Drawing on the formalisation of Miner's cumulative damage rule that we introduced in the recent article…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Francois-Baptiste Cartiaux , Frederic Legoll , Alex Libal , Julien Reygner

For two nonstandard renewal risk models, we investigate the precise large deviations of the finite-time ruin probability and a random sum of the net-loss process, and the asymptotics of the random-time ruin probability. Notably, in one of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-11 Yang Chen , Zhaolei Cui , Yuebao Wang

We investigate the Levy insurance risk model with tax under Cram\'er's condition. A direct analogue of Cram\'er's estimate for the probability of ruin in this model is obtained, together with the asymptotic distribution, conditional on ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Philip Griffin

This article studies in detail the solution of an integral equation due to Rongming et al. [13]. The methods involve complex analysis. As an application, we find the ruin probability of a given Bonus-Malus system in a steady state. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-23 Dan Kucerovsky , Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi
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