Related papers: Joint Behavior and Common Belief
Social animals have to make collective decisions on a daily basis. In most instances, these decisions are taken by consensus, when the group does what the majority of individuals want. Individuals have to base these decisions on the…
This paper introduces the notion of `commonly knowing whether', a non-standard version of standard common knowledge which is defined on the basis of `knowing whether', instead of standard `knowing that'. After giving five possible…
When we communicate with other humans, we do not simply generate a sequence of words. Rather, we use our cognitive state (beliefs, desires, intentions) and our model of the audience's cognitive state to create utterances that affect the…
Given a set of conflicting arguments, there can exist multiple plausible opinions about which arguments should be accepted, rejected, or deemed undecided. We study the problem of how multiple such judgments can be aggregated. We define the…
This study explores the potential of crowdfunding as a tool for achieving citizen co-funding of public projects. Focusing on philanthropic crowdfunding, we examine whether collaborative projects between public and private organizations are…
A concrete, stylized example illustrates that inferences may be degraded, rather than improved, by incorporating supplementary data via a joint likelihood. In the example, the likelihood is assumed to be correctly specified, as is the prior…
Rewards and penalties are common practical tools that can be used to promote cooperation in social institutions. The evolution of cooperation under reward and punishment incentives in joint enterprises has been formalized and investigated,…
Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is mainly based on empirical fits to…
In this paper we introduce a qualitative decision and game theory based on belief (B) and desire (D) rules. We show that a group of agents acts as if it is maximizing achieved joint goals.
Aumann's famous Agreeing to Disagree Theorem states that if a group of agents share a common prior, update their beliefs by Bayesian conditioning based on private information, and have common knowledge of their posterior beliefs regarding…
A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we…
The combined effects of collective beliefs and individual stubbornness in the dynamic of a public debate are investigated using the Galam sequential probabilistic model of opinion dynamics. The study is focused on pair interactions for…
Social behaviors are often contagious, spreading through a population as individuals imitate the decisions and choices of others. A variety of global phenomena, from innovation adoption to the emergence of social norms and political…
The problem of combining the evidence concerning an unknown, contained in each of $k$ Bayesian inference bases, is discussed. This can be considered as a generalization of the problem of pooling $k$ priors to determine a consensus prior.…
Understanding how cooperation emerges in public goods games is crucial for addressing societal challenges. While optional participation can establish cooperation without identifying cooperators, it relies on specific assumptions -- that…
Multi-agent decision-making under uncertainty is fundamental for effective and safe autonomous operation. In many real-world scenarios, each agent maintains its own belief over the environment and must plan actions accordingly. However,…
Traditionally, an agent's beliefs would come from what the agent can see, hear, or sense. In the modern world, beliefs are often based on the data available to the agents. In this work, we investigate a dynamic logic of such beliefs that…
It is often thought that the existence of other worlds cannot be scientifically verified and therefore should be treated as philosophical speculation. In this article, I describe several methods for determining if other worlds exist, even…
The purpose of this article is to formulate a number of probabilistic hidden-variable theorems, to provide proofs in some cases, and counterexamples to some conjectured relationships. The first theorem is the fundamental one. It asserts the…
Causal belief is a cognitive practice that humans apply everyday to reason about cause and effect relations between factors, phenomena, or events. Like optical illusions, humans are prone to drawing causal relations between events that are…