Related papers: Inertial Updating
The recent availability of huge high resolution datasets on human activities has revealed the heavy-tailed nature of the interevent time distributions. In social simulations of interacting agents the standard approach has been to use…
One form of long-term behavior revealed by opinion dynamics simulations is intermittency, where an individual cycles between eras of stable, constant beliefs and turbulent, fluctuating beliefs, for example when inferring the political bias…
Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the…
The belief revision literature has largely focussed on the issue of how to revise one's beliefs in the light of information regarding matters of fact. Here we turn to an important but comparatively neglected issue: How might one extend a…
The idea of preserving conditional beliefs emerged recently as a new paradigm apt to guide the revision of epistemic states. Conditionals are substantially different from propositional beliefs and need specific treatment. In this paper, we…
Several forms of iterable belief change exist, differing in the kind of change and its strength: some operators introduce formulae, others remove them; some add formulae unconditionally, others only as additions to the previous beliefs;…
Robust belief revision methods are crucial in streaming data situations for updating existing knowledge or beliefs with new incoming evidence. Bayes conditioning is the primary mechanism in use for belief revision in data fusion systems…
This paper reports a modified axiomatic foundation of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), where the reciprocal property of paired comparisons is broken. The novel concept of reciprocal symmetry breaking is proposed to characterize the…
This paper presents a model of costly information acquisition where decision-makers can choose whether to elaborate information superficially or precisely. The former action is costless, while the latter entails a processing cost. Within…
Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of…
Online learning makes sequence of decisions with partial data arrival where next movement of data is unknown. In this paper, we have presented a new technique as multiple times weight updating that update the weight iteratively forsame…
Social dilemmas have been regarded as the essence of evolution game theory, in which the prisoner's dilemma game is the most famous metaphor for the problem of cooperation. Recent findings revealed people's behavior violated the Sure Thing…
Stability Selection was recently introduced by Meinshausen and Buhlmann (2010) as a very general technique designed to improve the performance of a variable selection algorithm. It is based on aggregating the results of applying a selection…
We use the method of Maximum (relative) Entropy to process information in the form of observed data and moment constraints. The generic "canonical" form of the posterior distribution for the problem of simultaneous updating with data and…
While recent years have witnessed the emergence of various explainable methods in machine learning, to what degree the explanations really represent the reasoning process behind the model prediction -- namely, the faithfulness of…
We study the impact of learning on the optimal policy and the time-to-decision in an infinite-horizon Bayesian sequential decision model with two irreversible alternatives, exit and expansion. In our model, a firm undertakes a small-scale…
We build simple computational models of belief dynamics within the framework of discrete-spin statistical physics models, and explore how suitable they are for understanding and predicting real-world belief change on both the individual and…
Consider the sequential testing of binary outcomes. The a posteriori belief process and its objective conditional-probability counterpart generally differ but converge to the same result in well-defined tests. We show that unless the two…
This article extends the hypotheses assessment method to the case with two competing simple hypotheses. In doing so we further clarify the benefits that hypotheses assessments can bring to classical statistical analyses. Given that…
Any act of problem-solving combines prior knowledge, local search, and a third element that is less often discussed: the extraction of information from search to update understanding. I propose a model of mathematical problem-solving as a…