Related papers: Bootstrap Consistency for the Mack Bootstrap
To go beyond standard first-order asymptotics for Cox regression, we develop parametric bootstrap and second-order methods. In general, computation of $P$-values beyond first order requires more model specification than is required for the…
We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…
To address the difficult problem of multi-step ahead prediction of non-parametric autoregressions, we consider a forward bootstrap approach. Employing a local constant estimator, we can analyze a general type of non-parametric time series…
Bootstrapping is often applied to get confidence limits for semiparametric inference of a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters. Bootstrapping with replacement can be computationally expensive and problematic when…
Constructing tests or confidence regions that control over the error rates in the long-run is probably one of the most important problem in statistics. Yet, the theoretical justification for most methods in statistics is asymptotic. The…
Asymptotic bootstrap validity is usually understood as consistency of the distribution of a bootstrap statistic, conditional on the data, for the unconditional limit distribution of a statistic of interest. From this perspective, randomness…
This paper develops valid bootstrap inference methods for the dynamic short panel threshold regression. We show that the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent for the first-differenced generalized method of moments (GMM)…
We propose multiplier bootstrap procedures for nonparametric inference and uncertainty quantification of the target mean function, based on a novel framework of integrating target and source data. We begin with the relatively easier…
Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes…
Bootstrap is an idea that imposing consistency conditions on a physical system may lead to rigorous and nontrivial statements about its physical observables. In this work, we discuss the bootstrap problem for the invariant measure of the…
When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…
A fixed-design residual bootstrap method is proposed for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap's consistency is proven for a general class of volatility models and…
Machine learning in asset pricing typically predicts expected returns as point estimates, ignoring uncertainty. We develop new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns obtained from neural networks. We show…
An important issue in survival analysis is the investigation and the modeling of hazard rates. Within a Bayesian nonparametric framework, a natural and popular approach is to model hazard rates as kernel mixtures with respect to a…
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…
This paper presents the hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) for loss reserving in a non-life insurance company. Because in this case the error of prediction is expressed by a complex analytical formula, the error bootstrap…
We quantify the uncertainty of the L\"ammer model of damage evolution when fitted to (noisy) observations of damage evolution in cyclic fatigue experiments with and without dwell time. We therefore develop a bootstrap method by sampling…
In contemporary data-driven environments, the generation and processing of multivariate time series data is an omnipresent challenge, often complicated by time delays between different time series. These delays, originating from a multitude…
This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…
The bootstrap is a popular and convenient method for quantifying the authority of an empirical ordering of attributes, for example of a ranking of the performance of institutions or of the influence of genes on a response variable. In the…