Related papers: JUNE-Germany: An Agent-Based Epidemiology Simulati…

Traditional sociological research often relies on human participation, which, though effective, is expensive, challenging to scale, and with ethical concerns. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) highlight their potential to…

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…

We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…

Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…

On June 16, 2020, Germany launched an open-source smartphone contact tracing app ("Corona-Warn-App") to help tracing SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) infection chains. It uses a decentralized, privacy-preserving design based on the Exposure…

In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…

Infodemics are a threat to public health, arising from multiple interacting phenomena occurring both online and offline. The continuous feedback loops between the digital information ecosystem and offline contingencies make infodemics…

The Covid-19 pandemic still causes severe impacts on society and the economy. This paper studies excess mortality during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 in Germany empirically with a special focus on the life insurer's perspective. Our…

This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by…

Since the beginning of the epidemic, daily reports of CoViD-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from around the world have been publicly available. This paper describes methods to characterize broad features of the spread of the disease,…

In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of…

We develop a agent-based framework to model the emergence of collective emotions, which is applied to online communities. Agents individual emotions are described by their valence and arousal. Using the concept of Brownian agents, these…

Predicting an infectious disease can help reduce its impact by advising public health interventions and personal preventive measures. Novel data streams, such as Internet and social media data, have recently been reported to benefit…

Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic started, all the governments have been trying to limit its effects on their citizens and countries. This pandemic was harsh on different levels for almost all populations worldwide and this is what drove…

In this work we describe a non-parametric disease model that links the temporal change of the prevalence of an infectious disease to the incidence and the recovery rates. The model is only based on the common epidemiological measures…

Agent-based social simulation provides a valuable methodology for predicting social information diffusion, yet existing approaches face two primary limitations. Traditional agent models often rely on rigid behavioral rules and lack semantic…

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…

Switzerland experienced one of the warmest summers during 2022. Extreme heat has been linked to increased mortality. Monitoring the mortality burden attributable to extreme heat is crucial to inform policies, such as heat warnings, and…

Many datasets describing contacts in a population suffer from incompleteness due to population sampling and underreporting of contacts. Data-driven simulations of spreading processes using such incomplete data lead to an underestimation of…

Understanding how human mobility and information propagation influence the course of an epidemic remains a key challenge in digital epidemiology. In this work, we develop a new awareness-based, event-triggered epidemic model embedded within…