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We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to conduct such sampling, but such a method can converge…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-29 Belhal Karimi , Marc Lavielle

From basic considerations of the Lie group that preserves a target probability measure, we derive the Barker, Metropolis, and ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, as well as variants of waste-recycling Metropolis-Hastings…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-29 Steve Huntsman

A Riemannian geometric framework for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed where using the Fisher-Rao metric on the manifold of probability density functions (pdfs), informed proposal densities for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-08 Vivekananda Roy

We investigate the properties of the Hybrid Monte-Carlo algorithm (HMC) in high dimensions. HMC develops a Markov chain reversible w.r.t. a given target distribution $\Pi$ by using separable Hamiltonian dynamics with potential $-\log\Pi$.…

We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-29 Alessio Benavoli , Jason Wyse , Arthur White

We evaluate numerically-precise Monte Carlo (MC), Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) and Randomised Quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods for computing probabilistic reachability in hybrid systems with random parameters. Computing reachability probability…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-04-16 Mariia Vasileva , Paolo Zuliani

Since its first description fifty years ago, the Metropolis Monte Carlo method has been used in a variety of different ways for the simulation of continuum quantum many-body systems. This paper will consider some of the generalizations of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 D. M. Ceperley

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Nando de Freitas , Pedro Hojen-Sorensen , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

Variable selection is a key issue when analyzing high-dimensional data. The explosion of data with large sample sizes and dimensionality brings new challenges to this problem in both inference accuracy and computational complexity. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-30 Xu Chen , Shaan Qamar , Surya T. Tokdar

Monte Carlo methods use random sampling to estimate numerical quantities which are hard to compute deterministically. One important example is the use in statistical physics of rapidly mixing Markov chains to approximately compute partition…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-07-12 Ashley Montanaro

Statistical signal processing applications usually require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. These estimates are typically obtained either by solving a multi-variate optimization problem, as in the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-27 D. Luengo , L. Martino , M. Bugallo , V. Elvira , S. Särkkä

We propose a splitting Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SHMC) algorithm, which can be computationally efficient when combined with the random mini-batch strategy. By splitting the potential energy into numerically nonstiff and stiff parts, one…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-23 Lei Li , Lin Liu , Yuzhou Peng

An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-17 Naoki Awaya , Yasuhiro Omori

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-04 Andrew Golightly , Theodore Kypraios

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Matthias Morzfeld , Marcus S. Day , Ray W. Grout , George Shu Heng Pau , Stefan A. Finsterle , John B. Bell

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Murali Haran , Luke Tierney

A significant part of MCMC methods can be considered as the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with different proposal distributions. From this point of view, the problem of constructing a sampler can be reduced to the question - how to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-11 Kirill Neklyudov , Evgenii Egorov , Pavel Shvechikov , Dmitry Vetrov

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yuxiong Gao , Wentao Li , Rong Chen

Sequential state estimation in non-linear and non-Gaussian state spaces has a wide range of applications in statistics and signal processing. One of the most effective non-linear filtering approaches, particle filtering, suffers from weight…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-01 Yunpeng Li , Soumyasundar Pal , Mark Coates
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