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We consider a Wright-Fisher diffusion (x(t)) whose current state cannot be observed directly. Instead, at times t1 < t2 < . . ., the observations y(ti) are such that, given the process (x(t)), the random variables (y(ti)) are independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-05 Mireille Chaleyat-Maurel , Valentine Genon-Catalot

In this paper an exact rejection algorithm for simulating paths of the coupled Wright-Fisher diffusion is introduced. The coupled Wright-Fisher diffusion is a family of multidimensional Wright-Fisher diffusions that have drifts depending on…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Celia García-Pareja , Henrik Hult , Timo Koski

In this paper, a modification of the conventional approximations to the quasi-maximum likelihood method is introduced for the parameter estimation of diffusion processes from discrete observations. This is based on a convergent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-19 J. C. Jimenez

We propose a new approach to quantize the marginals of the discrete Euler diffusion process. The method is built recursively and involves the conditional distribution of the marginals of the discrete Euler process. Analytically, the method…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-25 Gilles Pagès , Abass Sagna

This paper deals with the problem of outliers in high frequency observation data from diffusion processes. Robust estimation methods are needed because the inclusion of outliers can lead to incorrect statistical inference even in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Tomoyuki Nakagawa , Yusuke Shimizu

The Wright-Fisher diffusion is a fundamentally important model of evolution encompassing genetic drift, mutation, and natural selection. Suppose you want to infer the parameters associated with these processes from an observed sample path.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-22 Paul A. Jenkins

We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

To ensure high quality outputs, it is important to quantify the epistemic uncertainty of diffusion models. Existing methods are often unreliable because they mix epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. We introduce a method based on Fisher…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Aditi Gupta , Raphael A. Meyer , Yotam Yaniv , Elynn Chen , N. Benjamin Erichson

Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-11 Matthew M. Graham , Alexandre H. Thiery , Alexandros Beskos

Given a smooth function $f$, we develop a general approach to turn Monte Carlo samples with expectation $m$ into an unbiased estimate of $f(m)$. Specifically, we develop estimators that are based on randomly truncating the Taylor series…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Nicolas Chopin , Francesca R. Crucinio , Sumeetpal S. Singh

We address the problem of likelihood based inference for correlated diffusion processes using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Such a task presents two interesting problems. First, the construction of the MCMC scheme should…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Petros Dellaportas , Gareth O. Roberts

Discrete diffusion models are a class of generative models that produce samples from an approximated data distribution within a discrete state space. Often, there is a need to target specific regions of the data distribution. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Cheuk Kit Lee , Paul Jeha , Jes Frellsen , Pietro Lio , Michael Samuel Albergo , Francisco Vargas

We develop a maximum penalized quasi-likelihood estimator for estimating in a nonparametric way the diffusion function of a diffusion process, as an alternative to more traditional kernel-based estimators. After developing a numerical…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-01-12 Jeff Hamrick , Yifei Huang , Constantinos Kardaras , Murad Taqqu

The increasing availability of population-level allele frequency data across one or more related populations necessitates the development of methods that can efficiently estimate population genetics parameters, such as the strength of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-09 Jeffrey J. Gory , Radu Herbei , Laura S. Kubatko

In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-01 Jingning Yao , Ajay Jasra , Sheng Jiang

A Monte Carlo method for simulating a multi-dimensional diffusion process conditioned on hitting a fixed point at a fixed future time is developed. Proposals for such diffusion bridges are obtained by superimposing an additional guiding…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-30 Moritz Schauer , Frank van der Meulen , Harry van Zanten

We propose a novel method for drift estimation of multiscale diffusion processes when a sequence of discrete observations is given. For the Langevin dynamics in a two-scale potential, our approach relies on the eigenvalues and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-15 Assyr Abdulle , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Andrea Zanoni

We apply a Lindeberg principle under the Markov process setting to approximate the Wright-Fisher model with neutral $r$-alleles using a diffusion process, deriving an error rate based on a function class distance involving fourth-order…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-15 Peng Chen , Jie Xiong , Lihu Xu , Jiayu Zheng

We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed multivariate diffusion processes. Observations are assumed to be discrete in time, noisy and incomplete. We assume the drift and diffusion coefficient depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-04 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Raul Tempone