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Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Yixin Wang , Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel

This work addresses the problem of predicting the motion trajectories of dynamic objects in the environment. Recent advances in predicting motion patterns often rely on machine learning techniques to extrapolate motion patterns from…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Weiming Zhi , Lionel Ott , Fabio Ramos

We propose a new approach for the problem of relative depth estimation from a single image. Instead of directly regressing over depth scores, we formulate the problem as estimation of a probability distribution over depth and aim to learn…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Alican Mertan , Yusuf Huseyin Sahin , Damien Jade Duff , Gozde Unal

3D object detection and pose estimation from a single image are two inherently ambiguous problems. Oftentimes, objects appear similar from different viewpoints due to shape symmetries, occlusion and repetitive textures. This ambiguity in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-08-21 Fabian Manhardt , Diego Martin Arroyo , Christian Rupprecht , Benjamin Busam , Tolga Birdal , Nassir Navab , Federico Tombari

3D object detection is an important capability needed in various practical applications such as driver assistance systems. Monocular 3D detection, as a representative general setting among image-based approaches, provides a more economical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-29 Tai Wang , Xinge Zhu , Jiangmiao Pang , Dahua Lin

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mengyang Gu , Yizi Lin , Victor Chang Lee , Diana Qiu

Current theories of perception suggest that the brain represents features of the world as probability distributions, but can such uncertain foundations provide the basis for everyday vision? Perceiving objects and scenes requires knowing…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-30 Andrey Chetverikov , Árni Kristjánsson

Diffusion probabilistic models have quickly become a major approach for generative modeling of images, 3D geometry, video and other domains. However, to adapt diffusion generative modeling to these domains the denoising network needs to be…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Peiye Zhuang , Samira Abnar , Jiatao Gu , Alex Schwing , Joshua M. Susskind , Miguel Ángel Bautista

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution of $n$ independent random variables. Our approach is based on a family of candidate probabilities that we shall call a model and which is chosen to either contain the true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Yannick Baraud

This work presents a new classifier that is specifically designed to be fully interpretable. This technique determines the probability of a class outcome, based directly on probability assignments measured from the training data. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-31 Sapan Agarwal , Corey M. Hudson

Logistic regression models are widely used in the social and behavioral sciences and in high-stakes domains, due to their simplicity and interpretability properties. At the same time, such domains are permeated by distribution shifts, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Qingshi Sun , Nathan Justin , Andres Gomez , Phebe Vayanos

Linear regression estimators are known to be sensitive to outliers, and one alternative to obtain a robust and efficient estimator of the regression parameter is to model the error with Student's $t$ distribution. In this article, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Amanda Ng , Shangkai Zhu , Archer Gong Zhang , Nancy Reid

Projection Pursuit methodology permits to solve the difficult problem of finding an estimate of a density defined on a set of very large dimension. In his seminal article, Huber (see "Projection pursuit", Annals of Statistics, 1985)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-18 Jacques Touboul

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-21 Hao Song , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

Big data can easily be contaminated by outliers or contain variables with heavy-tailed distributions, which makes many conventional methods inadequate. To address this challenge, we propose the adaptive Huber regression for robust…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Qiang Sun , Wenxin Zhou , Jianqing Fan

Mixture models are commonly used when data show signs of heterogeneity and, often, it is important to estimate the distribution of the latent variable responsible for that heterogeneity. This is a common problem for data taking values in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-22 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Prior methods that tackle the problem of generalizable object pose estimation highly rely on having dense views of the unseen object. By contrast, we address the scenario where only a single reference view of the object is available. Our…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Chen Zhao , Tong Zhang , Mathieu Salzmann

3D hand pose estimation is a fundamental task in understanding human hands. However, accurately estimating 3D hand poses remains challenging due to the complex movement of hands, self-similarity, and frequent occlusions. In this work, we…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Lee Chae-Yeon , Nam Hyeon-Woo , Tae-Hyun Oh
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