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Related papers: Time series conditional extremes

200 papers

We generalize the concept of extremal index of a stationary random sequence to the series scheme of identically distributed random variables with random series sizes tending to infinity in probability. We introduce new extremal indices…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Alexey V. Lebedev

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-22 Marco Oesting , Raphaël Huser

We consider a stationary stochastic volatility field $Y_vZ_v$ with $v\in\mathbb{Z}^d$, where $Z$ is regularly varying and $Y$ has lighter tails and is independent of $Z$. We make - relative to existing literature - very general assumptions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Mads Stehr , Anders Rønn-Nielsen

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the integrated periodogram calculated from a sequence of indicator functions of dependent extremal events. An event in Euclidean space is extreme if it occurs far away from the origin. We use a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-16 Thomas Mikosch , Yuwei Zhao

We consider a general statistical estimation problem wherein binary labels across different observations are not independent conditioned on their feature vectors, but dependent, capturing settings where e.g. these observations are collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Yuval Dagan , Constantinos Daskalakis , Nishanth Dikkala , Surbhi Goel , Anthimos Vardis Kandiros

In this paper, we focus on stochastic comparisons of extreme order statistics stemming from multiple-outlier scale models with dependence. Archimedean copula is used to model dependence structure among nonnegative random variables.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Sangita Das , Suchandan Kayal

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Raphaël Huser , Anthony C. Davison , Marc G. Genton

The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-26 Amina El Bernoussi , Mohamed El Arrouchi

Capturing the dependence structure of multivariate extreme events is a major concern in many fields involving the management of risks stemming from multiple sources, e.g. portfolio monitoring, insurance, environmental risk management and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-15 Nicolas Goix , Anne Sabourin , Stéphan Clémençon

The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-17 A. C. Davison , S. A. Padoan , M. Ribatet

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-18 Ruethaichanok Kardkasem , Meagan Carney

This article proposes a generalized notion of extreme multivariate dependence between two random vectors which relies on the extremality of the cross-covariance matrix between these two vectors. Using a partial ordering on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-10 Damien Bosc , Alfred Galichon

Various natural phenomena exhibit spatial extremal dependence at short spatial distances. However, existing models proposed in the spatial extremes literature often assume that extremal dependence persists across the entire domain. This is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-01 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , David Bolin

The analysis of multiple time-to-event outcomes in a randomised controlled clinical trial can be accomplished with exisiting methods. However, depending on the characteristics of the disease under investigation and the circumstances in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Moritz Fabian Danzer , Andreas Faldum , Thorsten Simon , Barbara Hero , Rene Schmidt

Different dependence scenarios can arise in multivariate extremes, entailing careful selection of an appropriate class of models. In bivariate extremes, the variables are either asymptotically dependent or are asymptotically independent.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-30 Jennifer Wadsworth , Jonathan Tawn , Anthony Davison , Daniel Elton

Study of time series data often involves measuring the strength of temporal dependence, on which statistical properties like consistency and central limit theorem are built. Historically, various dependence measures have been proposed. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-16 Fang Han , Weibiao Wu

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet

In this paper we improve some existing results concerning the approximation of the distribution of extremes of a 1-dependent and stationary sequence of random variables. We enlarge the range of applicability and improve the approximation…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Alexandru Amarioarei

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Paul Doukhan , Michael H. Neumann , Lionel Truquet