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We compute the posterior distributions of the initial population and parameter of binary branching processes, in the limit of a large number of generations. We compare this Bayesian procedure with a more na\"ive one, based on hitting times…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Didier Piau

We consider a subcritical Galton--Watson tree conditioned on having $n$ vertices with outdegree in a fixed set $\Omega$. Under mild regularity assumptions we prove various limits related to the maximal offspring of a vertex as $n$ tends to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-24 Benedikt Stufler

Environmental changes greatly influence the evolution of populations. Here, we study the dynamics of a population of two strains, one growing slightly faster than the other, competing for resources in a time-varying binary environment…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-28 Ami Taitelbaum , Robert West , Michael Assaf , Mauro Mobilia

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a supercritical controlled branching process consistently from a single observed trajectory of population size counts. Our goal is to establish which parameters can and cannot be…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Peter Braunsteins , Sophie Hautphenne , James Kerlidis

We study the asymptotic behaviour of a random walk whose evolution is dependent on the state of an itself dynamically evolving environment. In particular, we extend our previous results in [Bethuelsen and V\"ollering, 2016] and prove a…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-21 Stein Andreas Bethuelsen , Florian Völlering

We consider a branching-selection particle system on the real line. In this model the total size of the population at time $n$ is limited by $\exp\left(a n^{1/3}\right)$. At each step $n$, every individual dies while reproducing…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Bastien Mallein

We study the explosion phenomenon of nonlinear continuous-state branching processes (nonlinear CSBPs). First an explicit integral test for explosion is designed when the rate function does not increase too fast. We then exhibit three…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-10 Bo Li , Clément Foucart , Xiaowen Zhou

Let $(Z_{n})$ be a supercritical branching process in a random environment $\xi $, and $W$ be the limit of the normalized population size $Z_{n}/\mathbb{E}[Z_{n}|\xi ]$. We show large and moderate deviation principles for the sequence $\log…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-19 Chunmao Huang , Quansheng Liu

The long-term growth rate of populations in varying environments quantifies the evolutionary value of processing the information that biological individuals inherit from their ancestors and acquire from their environment. Previous models…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-30 Anton S Zadorin , Olivier Rivoire

In this article, we consider a branching random walk on the real-line where displacements coming from the same parent have jointly regularly varying tails. The genealogical structure is assumed to be a supercritical Galton-Watson tree,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-07 Ayan Bhattacharya

We define symmetric and asymmetric branching trees, a class of processes particularly suited for modeling genealogies of inhomogeneous populations where individuals may reproduce throughout life. In this framework, a broad class of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-10 Frederik M. Andersen , Marc A. Suchard , Carsten Wiuf , Samir Bhatt

We consider a population with non-overlapping generations, whose size goes to infinity. It is described by a discrete genealogy which may be time non-homogeneous and we pay special attention to branching trees in varying environments. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-22 Vincent Bansaye , Chunmao Huang

Biological organisms have to cope with stochastic variations in both the external environment and the internal population dynamics. Theoretical studies and laboratory experiments suggest that population diversification could be an effective…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-09-13 BingKan Xue , Stanislas Leibler

We consider two versions of stochastic population models with mutation and selection. The first approach relies on a multitype branching process; here, individuals reproduce and change type (i.e., mutate) independently of each other,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-02-19 E. Baake , R. Bialowons

We examine the switching dynamics of a stochastic population subjected to a deterministically time-varying environment. Our approach is demonstrated in the realm of ecology on a problem of population establishment. Here, by assuming a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-02-19 Tom Israeli , Michael Assaf

We consider a Brownian motion with linear drift that splits at fixed time points into a fixed number of branches, which may depend on the branching point. For this process, which we shall refer to as the Brownian decision tree, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Krzysztof Dȩbicki , Pavel Ievlev , Nikolai Kriukov

In this paper, we consider time-inhomogeneous branching processes and time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes, in which the offspring distribution and birth and death rates (respectively) vary in time. A classical result of branching…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-02 Nicholas Bhattacharya , Mark Perlman

Let $(Z_n)$ be a supercritical branching process in an independent and identically distributed random environment $\xi$. We show the exact decay rate of the probability $\mathbb{P}(Z_n=j | Z_0 = k)$ as $n \to \infty$, for each $j \geq k,$…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-15 Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu , Eric Miqueu

We consider a system of $N$ particles on the real line that evolves through iteration of the following steps: 1) every particle splits into two, 2) each particle jumps according to a prescribed displacement distribution supported on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-24 Jean Bérard , Pascal Maillard

We establish general sufficient conditions for a sequence of controlled branching processes to converge weakly on the Skorokhod space. We focus on a class of controlled random variables that extends previous results by considering them as a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Miguel González , Pedro Martín-Chávez , Inés del Puerto