Related papers: Glacial abrupt climate change as a multi-scale phe…
It is well acknowledged that the sequence of glacial-interglacial cycles is paced by the astronomical forcing. However, how much is the sequence robust against natural fluctuations associated, for example, with the chaotic motions of…
The stochastic Arctic sea ice model described as a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation (ODE) is useful in explaining the seasonal variability of Arctic sea ice. However, to be nearer to realistic…
Glacial-interglacial cycles are large variations in continental ice mass and greenhouse gases, which have dominated climate variability over the Quaternary. The dominant periodicity of the cycles is $\sim $40 kyr before the so-called middle…
This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one~thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the…
Evidence of past climate variations are stored in ice and indicate glacial-interglacial cycles characterized by three dominant time periods of 20kyr, 40kyr, and 100kyr. We study the scaling properties of temperature proxy records of four…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
The Mid-Pleistocene Transition, the shift from 41 kyr to 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles that occurred roughly 1 Myr ago, is often considered as a change in internal climate dynamics. Here we revisit the model of Quaternary climate…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
A review of the recent refereed literature fails to confirm quantitatively that carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing was the prime mover in the changes in temperature, ice-sheet volume, and related climatic variables in the glacial and…
Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…
The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared. In the framework of proposed…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
This article is concerned with the internal dynamics of a conceptual model proposed by Maasch and Saltzman [J. Geophys. Res., 95, D2 (1990) 1955-1963] to explain central features of the glacial cycles observed in the climate record of the…
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…
Much work has been done on relaxation oscillations and other simple oscillators in conceptual climate models. However, the oscillatory patterns in climate data are often more complicated than what can be described by such mechanisms. This…
Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El…
The main objective of this article is to establish a new mechanism of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as a self-organizing and self-excitation system, with two highly coupled processes. The first is the oscillation between the two…