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The Regression Discontinuity (RD) design is a widely used non-experimental method for causal inference and program evaluation. While its canonical formulation only requires a score and an outcome variable, it is common in empirical work to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-25 Matias D. Cattaneo , Luke Keele , Rocio Titiunik

Inverse propensity-score weighted (IPW) estimators are prevalent in causal inference for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies. Under unconfoundedness, given accurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, the size of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-03 Alkis Kalavasis , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

With continuous outcomes, the average causal effect is typically defined using a contrast of expected potential outcomes. However, in the presence of skewed outcome data, the expectation may no longer be meaningful. In practice the typical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Daisy A. Shepherd , Benjamin R. Baer , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

Neural text matching models have been used in a range of applications such as question answering and natural language inference, and have yielded a good performance. However, these neural models are of a limited adaptability, resulting in a…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Bo Zhang , Chen Zhang , Fang Ma , Dawei Song

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

Weighting procedures are used in observational causal inference to adjust for covariate imbalance within the sample. Common practice for inference is to estimate robust standard errors from a weighted regression of outcome on treatment.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Erin Hartman , Chad Hazlett , Arisa Sadeghpour

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

We develop and analyze a principled approach to kernel ridge regression under covariate shift. The goal is to learn a regression function with small mean squared error over a target distribution, based on unlabeled data from there and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Kaizheng Wang

Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Wang , Surbhi Goel

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Raphael Schumann , Elman Mansimov , Yi-An Lai , Nikolaos Pappas , Xibin Gao , Yi Zhang

This paper investigates the convergence properties of spectral algorithms -- a class of regularization methods originating from inverse problems -- under covariate shift. In this setting, the marginal distributions of inputs differ between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-08 Ren-Rui Liu , Zheng-Chu Guo

A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Aditya Grover , Jiaming Song , Alekh Agarwal , Kenneth Tran , Ashish Kapoor , Eric Horvitz , Stefano Ermon

In randomized clinical trials, adjustments for baseline covariates at both design and analysis stages are highly encouraged by regulatory agencies. A recent trend is to use a model-assisted approach for covariate adjustment to gain…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Ting Ye , Jun Shao , Yanyao Yi , Qingyuan Zhao

Due to its speed and simplicity, subgradient descent is one of the most used optimization algorithms in convex machine learning algorithms. However, tuning its learning rate is probably its most severe bottleneck to achieve consistent good…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Keyi Chen , Francesco Orabona

Variable selection in sparse regression models is an important task as applications ranging from biomedical research to econometrics have shown. Especially for higher dimensional regression problems, for which the link function between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-10 Burim Ramosaj , Markus Pauly

Covariate shift, a widely used assumption in tackling {\it distributional shift} (when training and test distributions differ), focuses on scenarios where the distribution of the labels conditioned on the feature vector is the same, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-24 Deeksha Adil , Jarosław Błasiok

Overparameterized models that achieve zero training error are observed to generalize well on average, but degrade in performance when faced with data that is under-represented in the training sample. In this work, we study an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-13 Kuo-Wei Lai , Vidya Muthukumar

Although overparameterized models have shown their success on many machine learning tasks, the accuracy could drop on the testing distribution that is different from the training one. This accuracy drop still limits applying machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Yiping Lu , Wenlong Ji , Zachary Izzo , Lexing Ying

Complete randomization allows for consistent estimation of the average treatment effect based on the difference in means of the outcomes without strong modeling assumptions on the outcome-generating process. Appropriate use of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-03 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding

Randomization, as a key technique in clinical trials, can eliminate sources of bias and produce comparable treatment groups. In randomized experiments, the treatment effect is a parameter of general interest. Researchers have explored the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-05 Fuyi Tu , Wei Ma , Hanzhong Liu