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In prior work we have introduced an asymptotic threshold of sufficient randomness for causal inference from observational data. In this paper we extend that prior work in three main ways. First, we show how to empirically estimate a lower…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-07 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Placede Tshiaba

Stochastic simulation has been widely used to analyze the performance of complex stochastic systems and facilitate decision making in those systems. Stochastic simulation is driven by the input model, which is a collection of probability…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-14 Tianyi Liu , Enlu Zhou

Sampling from unnormalized densities presents a fundamental challenge with wide-ranging applications, from posterior inference to molecular dynamics simulations. Continuous flow-based neural samplers offer a promising approach, learning a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Wuhao Chen , Zijing Ou , Yingzhen Li

Many causal models of interest in epidemiology involve longitudinal exposures, confounders and mediators. However, repeated measurements are not always available or used in practice, leading analysts to overlook the time-varying nature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Lola Etievant , Vivian Viallon

We present a workflow for clinical data analysis that relies on Bayesian Structure Learning (BSL), an unsupervised learning approach, robust to noise and biases, that allows to incorporate prior medical knowledge into the learning process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Elisa Ferrari , Luna Gargani , Greta Barbieri , Lorenzo Ghiadoni , Francesco Faita , Davide Bacciu

This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-17 Anna Zaremba , Tomaso Aste

We study the identification of direct and indirect causes on time series and provide conditions in the presence of latent variables, which we prove to be necessary and sufficient under some graph constraints. Our theoretical results and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-23 Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing

Causal inference revealing causal dependencies between variables from empirical data has found applications in multiple sub-fields of scientific research. A quantum perspective of correlations holds the promise of overcoming the limitation…

This paper deals with the time-varying high dimensional covariance matrix estimation. We propose two covariance matrix estimators corresponding with a time-varying approximate factor model and a time-varying approximate characteristic-based…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-29 Jaeheon Jung

Causal discovery is to learn cause-effect relationships among variables given observational data and is important for many applications. Existing causal discovery methods assume data sufficiency, which may not be the case in many real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Zijun Cui , Naiyu Yin , Yuru Wang , Qiang Ji

Falsification is drawing attention in quality assurance of heterogeneous systems whose complexities are beyond most verification techniques' scalability. In this paper we introduce the idea of causality aid in falsification: by providing a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-11 Takumi Akazaki , Yoshihiro Kumazawa , Ichiro Hasuo

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas

The machine learning community has recently devoted much attention to the problem of inferring causal relationships from statistical data. Most of this work has focused on uncovering connections among scalar random variables. We generalize…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-07-10 Doris Entner , Patrik O. Hoyer

A multivariate quantile regression model with a factor structure is proposed to study data with many responses of interest. The factor structure is allowed to vary with the quantile levels, which makes our framework more flexible than the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Shih-Kang Chao , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Ming Yuan

Previously [Journal of Causal Inference, 10, 90-105 (2022)], we computed the variance of two estimators of causal effects for a v-structure of binary variables. Here we show that a linear combination of these estimators has lower variance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Jack Kuipers , Giusi Moffa

Stochastic averaging allows for the reduction of the dimension and complexity of stochastic dynamical systems with multiple time scales, replacing fast variables with statistically equivalent stochastic processes in order to analyze…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-25 William F. Thompson , Rachel A. Kuske , Adam H. Monahan

Causal inference methods (instrumental variables, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, etc.) are primary tools used across many social science milieus. One area where their application has lagged however, is in the study of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-22 Samuele Centorrino , Christopher F. Parmeter

A data science task can be deemed as making sense of the data or testing a hypothesis about it. The conclusions inferred from data can greatly guide us to make informative decisions. Big data has enabled us to carry out countless prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Wenhao Zhang , Ramin Ramezani , Arash Naeim

A fundamental concept in control theory is that of controllability, where any system state can be reached through an appropriate choice of control inputs. Indeed, a large body of classical and modern approaches are designed for controllable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-13 Yonathan Efroni , Sham Kakade , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Cyril Zhang

Many recently introduced enhanced sampling techniques are based on biasing coarse descriptors (collective variables) of a molecular system on the fly. Sometimes the calculation of such collective variables is expensive and becomes a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-09-01 Marco Jacopo Ferrarotti , Sandro Bottaro , Andrea Pérez-Villa , Giovanni Bussi
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