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Importance sampling is a central idea underlying off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. It provides a strategy for re-weighting samples from a distribution to obtain unbiased estimates under another distribution. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Kristopher De Asis , Eric Graves , Richard S. Sutton

In federated learning, differences in the data or objectives between the participating nodes motivate approaches to train a personalized machine learning model for each node. One such approach is weighted averaging between a locally trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Felix Grimberg , Mary-Anne Hartley , Sai P. Karimireddy , Martin Jaggi

Importance-weighting is a popular and well-researched technique for dealing with sample selection bias and covariate shift. It has desirable characteristics such as unbiasedness, consistency and low computational complexity. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-12 Wouter M. Kouw , Marco Loog

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Trial findings are often used to inform policy and programming efforts, yet their results may not generalize well to a relevant target population due to…

In semi-supervised learning, the prevailing understanding suggests that observing additional unlabeled samples improves estimation accuracy for linear parameters only in the case of model misspecification. In this work, we challenge such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Kai Chen , Yuqian Zhang

Logistic regression is key method for modeling the probability of a binary outcome based on a collection of covariates. However, the classical formulation of logistic regression relies on the independent sampling assumption, which is often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-25 Somabha Mukherjee , Ziang Niu , Sagnik Halder , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , George Michailidis

Missing data is frequently encountered in many areas of statistics. Propensity score weighting is a popular method for handling missing data. The propensity score method employs a response propensity model, but correct specification of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Hengfang Wang , Jae Kwang Kim , Jeongseop Han , Youngjo Lee

There is growing interest in a hybrid control design in which a randomized controlled trial is augmented with an external control arm from a previous trial or real world data. Existing methods for analyzing hybrid control studies include…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Zhiwei Zhang , Jialuo Liu , Wei Liu

Penalized logistic regression is extremely useful for binary classification with large number of covariates (higher than the sample size), having several real life applications, including genomic disease classification. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-10 Ayanendranath Basu , Abhik Ghosh , María Jaenada , Leandro Pardo

Complex statistical models such as scalar-on-image regression often require strong assumptions to overcome the issue of non-identifiability. While in theory it is well understood that model assumptions can strongly influence the results,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-04 Clara Happ , Sonja Greven , Volker J. Schmid

Bayesian multinomial logistic regression provides a principled, interpretable approach to multiclass classification, but posterior sampling becomes increasingly expensive as the model dimension grows. Prior work has studied scalability in…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-27 Jared D. Fisher , Kyle R. McEvoy

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Athénaïs Gautier , David Ginsbourger , Guillaume Pirot

Every student in statistics or data science learns early on that when the sample size largely exceeds the number of variables, fitting a logistic model produces estimates that are approximately unbiased. Every student also learns that there…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Pragya Sur , Emmanuel J. Candes

Linear models are used in online decision making, such as in machine learning, policy algorithms, and experimentation platforms. Many engineering systems that use linear models achieve computational efficiency through distributed systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-04 Jeffrey Wong , Eskil Forsell , Randall Lewis , Tobias Mao , Matthew Wardrop

Computing averages over a target probability density by statistical re-weighting of a set of samples with a different distribution is a strategy which is commonly adopted in fields as diverse as atomistic simulation and finance. Here we…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2012-02-21 Michele Ceriotti , Guy A. R. Brain , Oliver Riordan , David E. Manolopoulos

Machine learning techniques always aim to reduce the generalized prediction error. In order to reduce it, ensemble methods present a good approach combining several models that results in a greater forecasting capacity. The Random Machines…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-31 Anderson Ara , Mateus Maia , Samuel Macêdo , Francisco Louzada

We consider the problem of model building for rare events prediction in longitudinal follow-up studies. In this paper, we compare several resampling methods to improve standard regression models on a real life example. We evaluate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Pierre Druilhet , Mathieu Berthe , Stéphanie Léger

It is well known that parameters for strongly correlated predictor variables in a linear model cannot be accurately estimated. We look for linear combinations of these parameters that can be. Under a uniform model, we find such linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-17 Min Tsao

Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-09 Georg Hofmann

Online nonparametric estimators are gaining popularity due to their efficient computation and competitive generalization abilities. An important example includes variants of stochastic gradient descent. These algorithms often take one…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Tianyu Zhang , Jing Lei