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General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by…
libact is a Python package designed to make active learning easier for general users. The package not only implements several popular active learning strategies, but also features the active-learning-by-learning meta-algorithm that assists…
We introduce Geomstats, an open-source Python toolbox for computations and statistics on nonlinear manifolds, such as hyperbolic spaces, spaces of symmetric positive definite matrices, Lie groups of transformations, and many more. We…
Expert prior elicitation plays a critical role in Bayesian analysis by enabling the specification of prior distributions that reflect domain knowledge. However, expert knowledge often refers to observable quantities rather than directly to…
We introduce the information geometry module of the Python package Geomstats. The module first implements Fisher-Rao Riemannian manifolds of widely used parametric families of probability distributions, such as normal, gamma, beta,…
Many recent statistical applications involve inference under complex models, where it is computationally prohibitive to calculate likelihoods but possible to simulate data. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is devoted to these complex…
In this paper, we study large losses arising from defaults of a credit portfolio. We assume that the portfolio dependence structure is modelled by the Archimedean copula family as opposed to the widely used Gaussian copula. The resulting…
Structural equation modelling (SEM) is a multivariate statistical technique for estimating complex relationships between observed and latent variables. Although numerous SEM packages exist, each of them has limitations. Some packages are…
The exponential growth of complex data demands fully automatic clustering. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) provide uncertainty-aware grouping but often require expertise to specify hyperparameters, e.g., component count and covariance…
This article introduces the R package evgam. The package provides functions for fitting extreme value distributions. These include the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. The former can also be fitted through a…
Credit risk prediction is an effective way of evaluating whether a potential borrower will repay a loan, particularly in peer-to-peer lending where class imbalance problems are prevalent. However, few credit risk prediction models for…
We introduce a framework for systemic risk modeling in insurance portfolios using jointly exchangeable arrays, extending classical collective risk models to account for interactions. Joint exchangeability is a more general probabilistic…
In this paper, we address risk aggregation and capital allocation problems in the presence of dependence between risks. The dependence structure is defined by a mixed Bernstein copula which represents a generalization of the well-known…
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…
The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…
Chain event graphs (CEGs) are a recent family of probabilistic graphical models that generalise the popular Bayesian networks (BNs) family. Crucially, unlike BNs, a CEG is able to embed, within its graph and its statistical model,…
This paper is a contribution to the Proceedings of the Workshop Complexity, Metastability and Nonextensivity held in Erice 20-26 July 2004, to be published by World Scientific. We propose a generalization to Merton's model for evaluating…
We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…
The R package CVEK introduces a suite of flexible machine learning models and robust hypothesis tests for learning the joint nonlinear effects of multiple covariates in limited samples. It implements the Cross-validated Ensemble of Kernels…
We introduce a novel model called GAMMT (Generative Ambiguity Models using Multiple Transformers) for sequential data that is based on sets of probabilities. Unlike conventional models, our approach acknowledges that the data generation…