Related papers: Double-loop randomized quasi-Monte Carlo estimator…
We propose quantum algorithms that provide provable speedups for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods commonly used for sampling from probability distributions of the form $\pi \propto e^{-f}$, where $f$ is a potential function. Our…
We show that deliberately introducing a nested simulation stage can lead to significant variance reductions when comparing two stopping times by Monte Carlo. We derive the optimal number of nested simulations and prove that the algorithm is…
We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…
We survey a QMC approach to integral equations and develop some new applications to risk modeling. In particular, a rigorous error bound derived from Koksma-Hlawka type inequalities is achieved for certain expectations related to the…
We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…
A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…
We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…
We study the estimation of repeatedly nested expectations (RNEs) with a constant horizon (number of nestings) using quantum computing. We propose a quantum algorithm that achieves $\varepsilon$-error with cost $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-1})$,…
We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…
In this article we study examples of systematic biases that can occur in quantum Monte Carlo methods due to the accumulation of non-linear expectation values, and approaches by which these errors can be corrected. We begin with a study of…
We investigate the stability of a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method applied to the problem of sampling from a target distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ for large $d$. It is well known that using a single importance sampling step one produces…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used to sample from complicated distributions, especially to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, MCMC is not directly applicable when facing the doubly…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to Bayesian experimental design for non-exchangeable data that formulates it as risk-sensitive policy optimization. We develop the Inside-Out SMC$^2$ algorithm, a nested sequential Monte Carlo…
Orthogonal Monte Carlo (OMC) is a very effective sampling algorithm imposing structural geometric conditions (orthogonality) on samples for variance reduction. Due to its simplicity and superior performance as compared to its Quasi Monte…
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance…
Monte Carlo integration using quantum computers has been widely investigated, including applications to concrete problems. It is known that quantum algorithms based on quantum amplitude estimation (QAE) can compute an integral with a…
Recent developments in parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms allow us to run thousands of chains almost as quickly as a single chain, using hardware accelerators such as GPUs. While each chain still needs to forget its initial…
Statistical uncertainties complicate engineering design -- confounding regulated design approaches, and degrading the performance of reliability efforts. The simplest means to tackle this uncertainty is double loop simulation; a nested…
Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…