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Reliable forecasts of the power output from variable renewable energy generators like solar photovoltaic systems are important to balancing load on real-time electricity markets and ensuring electricity supply reliability. However, solar PV…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-07 Andea Scott , Sindhu Sreedhara , Folasade Ayoola

Solar energy supply is usually highly volatile which limits its integration in the power grid. Accurate probabilistic intraday forecasts of solar resources are essential to increase the share of photovoltaic (PV) energy in the grid and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-15 Alberto Carpentieri , Seppo Pulkkinen , Daniele Nerini , Doris Folini , Martin Wild , Angela Meyer

This paper develops a power management scheme that jointly optimizes the real power consumption of programmable loads and reactive power outputs of photovoltaic (PV) inverters in distribution networks. The premise is to determine the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-10-20 Mohammadhafez Bazrafshan , Nikolaos Gatsis

With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-30 Fatemeh Najibi , Dimitra Apostolopoulou , Eduardo Alonso

I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-09 James Rice

Accurate forecasting of solar power output is essential for efficient integration of renewable energy into the grid. In this study, an attention-based deep learning model, inspired by transformer architecture, is used for short-term solar…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Ankan Basu , Jyotiraditya Roy , Aditya Datta , Prayas Sanyal , Sumanta Banerjee

This paper introduces a statistical treatment of inverse problems constrained by models with stochastic terms. The solution of the forward problem is given by a distribution represented numerically by an ensemble of simulations. The goal is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-17 Emil M. Constantinescu , Noemi Petra , Julie Bessac , Cosmin G. Petra

The rapid global expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity-reaching a record 597 GW in 2024-highlights the urgent need for robust forecasting models to mitigate the grid instability caused by the intermittent nature of solar irradiance.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Sumit Laha , Ankit Sharma , Hassan Foroosh

The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-13 Daniel E. da Silva , Yash Parlikar , Shaela I. Jones , Charles N. Arge

In recent years, advancements in deep learning have spurred the development of numerous models for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF). However, most existing approaches struggle to fully capture the complex and structured dependencies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Zixuan Weng , Jindong Han , Wenzhao Jiang , Hao Liu

Solar energy is a clean and renewable energy. Photovoltaic (PV) power is an important way to utilize solar energy. Accurate PV power forecast is crucial to the large-scale application of PV power and the stability of electricity grid. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Mingliang Bai , Xinyu Zhao , Zhenhua Long , Jinfu Liu , Daren Yu

In the task of predicting spatio-temporal fields in environmental science using statistical methods, introducing statistical models inspired by the physics of the underlying phenomena that are numerically efficient is of growing interest.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Lucia Clarotto , Denis Allard , Thomas Romary , Nicolas Desassis

In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-23 Faranak Golestaneh , Pierre Pinson , Hoay Beng Gooi

Space-Time Projection (STP) is introduced as a data-driven forecasting approach for high-dimensional and time-resolved data. The method computes extended space-time proper orthogonal modes from training data spanning a prediction horizon…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Oliver T. Schmidt

This paper presents SolarBoost, a novel approach for forecasting power output in distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems. While existing centralized photovoltaic (CPV) methods are able to precisely model output dependencies due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Linyuan Geng , Linxiao Yang , Xinyue Gu , Liang Sun

In this paper a model is developed to solve the on/off scheduling of (non-linear) dynamic electric loads based on predictions of the power delivery of a (standalone) solar power source. Knowledge of variations in the solar power output is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-29 Abdulelah H. Habib , Jan Kleissl , Raymond A. de Callafon

Although the governing equations of many systems, when derived from first principles, may be viewed as known, it is often too expensive to numerically simulate all the interactions they describe. Therefore researchers often seek simpler…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-03 Tapio Schneider , Andrew M. Stuart , Jin-Long Wu

Photovoltaic (PV) power production increased drastically in Europe throughout the last years. About the 6% of electricity in Italy comes from PV and for an efficient management of the power grid an accurate and reliable forecasting of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-09-30 Matteo De Felice , Marcello Petitta , Paolo M. Ruti

We extend stochastic basis adaptation and spatial domain decomposition methods to solve time varying stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with a large number of input random parameters. Stochastic basis adaptation allows the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-03-08 Ramakrishna Tipireddy , Panos Stinis , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

We show how the recent extension of spectral submanifold (SSM) theory to delay differential equations (DDEs) enables data-driven model reduction of nonlinear delay systems. First, using a scalar DDE with a single discrete delay, we compare…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Giacomo Abbasciano , Gergely Buza , George Haller