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Causal graphs are widely used in software engineering to document and explore causal relationships. Though widely used, they may also be wildly misleading. Causal structures generated from SE data can be highly variable. This instability is…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Jeremy Hulse , Nasir U. Eisty , Tim Menzies

We study the problem of identifiability of the total effect of an intervention from observational time series in the situation, common in practice, where one only has access to abstractions of the true causal graph. We consider here two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Charles K. Assaad , Emilie Devijver , Eric Gaussier , Gregor Gössler , Anouar Meynaoui

The configuration space of causal sets is vast. It is a critical goal to map out this space. Here, we take a practical step towards this goal. We investigate nine classes of causal sets, most of them not studied before. These include…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-05-28 Astrid Eichhorn , Harald Mack , Kim Tuyen Le , Fabian Wagner

Recent approaches in causal inference have proposed estimating average causal effects that are local to some subpopulation, often for reasons of efficiency. These inferential targets are sometimes data-adaptive, in that they are dependent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-08 Peter M. Aronow

Recent causal inference literature has introduced causal effect decompositions to quantify sources of observed inequalities or disparities in outcomes, but these approaches are typically limited to pairwise comparisons. In healthcare…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-27 Lin Yu , Zhihui Liu , Kathy Han , Olli Saarela

This paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of the effects of actions in the presence of unmeasured variables. We show that the identification of causal effect between a singleton variable X and a set of variables Y can be accomplished…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 David Galles , Judea Pearl

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Richard A Watson , Hengrui Cai , Xinming An , Samuel McLean , Rui Song

Causal inference is a central goal across many scientific disciplines. Over the past several decades, three major frameworks have emerged to formalize causal questions and guide their analysis: the potential outcomes framework, structural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Linbo Wang , Thomas Richardson , James Robins

With increasing data availability, causal effects can be evaluated across different data sets, both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. RCTs isolate the effect of the treatment from that of unwanted (confounding)…

Visual representations underlie object recognition tasks, but they often contain both robust and non-robust features. Our main observation is that image classifiers may perform poorly on out-of-distribution samples because spurious…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-27 Chengzhi Mao , Kevin Xia , James Wang , Hao Wang , Junfeng Yang , Elias Bareinboim , Carl Vondrick

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

Students who eat breakfast more frequently tend to have a higher grade point average. From this data, many people might confidently state that a before-school breakfast program would lead to higher grades. This is a reasoning error, because…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2019-08-02 Cindy Xiong , Joel Shapiro , Jessica Hullman , Steven Franconeri

We propose a new method to estimate causal effects from nonexperimental data. Each pair of sample units is first associated with a stochastic 'treatment' - differences in factors between units - and an effect - a resultant outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Andre F. Ribeiro , Frank Neffke , Ricardo Hausmann

Causal effects are commonly defined as comparisons of the potential outcomes under treatment and control, but this definition is threatened by the possibility that the treatment or control condition is not well-defined, existing instead in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-26 Raiden B. Hasegawa , Sameer K. Deshpande , Dylan S. Small , Paul R. Rosenbaum

Heteroscedasticity -- where the variance of a variable changes with other variables -- is pervasive in real data, and elucidating why it arises from the perspective of statistical moments is crucial in scientific knowledge discovery and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yoichi Chikahara

Identifying the effect of a treatment from observational data typically requires assuming a fully specified causal diagram. However, such diagrams are rarely known in practice, especially in complex or high-dimensional settings. To overcome…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Clément Yvernes , Emilie Devijver , Marianne Clausel , Eric Gaussier

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Elisabeth Ailer , Jason Hartford , Niki Kilbertus

Consider the case where cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic graph and the corresponding linear structural equation model. This paper provides graphical identifiability criteria for total…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-09 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai , Hiroki Motogaito

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard…

It is evidence that representation learning can improve model's performance over multiple downstream tasks in many real-world scenarios, such as image classification and recommender systems. Existing learning approaches rely on establishing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-18 Mengyue Yang , Xinyu Cai , Furui Liu , Xu Chen , Zhitang Chen , Jianye Hao , Jun Wang