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Related papers: Detecting Rough Volatility: A Filtering Approach

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We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-02 Georgi Dinolov , Abel Rodriguez , Hongyun Wang

In the setting of stochastic Volterra equations, and in particular rough volatility models, we show that conditional expectations are the unique classical solutions to path-dependent PDEs. The latter arise from the functional It\^o formula…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Ofelia Bonesini , Antoine Jacquier , Alexandre Pannier

We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-05 Mario Bonino , Matteo Camelia , Paolo Pigato

We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the price…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-11-14 Damir Filipović , Lane P. Hughston , Andrea Macrina

Uncertainties are abundant in complex systems. Mathematical models for these systems thus contain random effects or noises. The models are often in the form of stochastic differential equations, with some parameters to be determined by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jiarui Yang , Jinqiao Duan

We consider a class of fractional stochastic volatility models (including the so-called rough Bergomi model), where the volatility is a superlinear function of a fractional Gaussian process. We show that the stock price is a true martingale…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-01 Paul Gassiat

Maximum likelihood estimation applied to high-frequency data allows us to quantify intermittency in the fluctu- ations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-04 Martin Rypdal , Espen Sirnes , Ola Løvsletten , Kristoffer Rypdal

A multivariate fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) with component-wise Hurst exponents is used to model and forecast realized volatility. We investigate the interplay between correlation coefficients and Hurst exponents and propose a novel…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-23 Markus Bibinger , Jun Yu , Chen Zhang

Rough volatility is a well-established statistical stylised fact of financial assets. This property has lead to the design and analysis of various new rough stochastic volatility models. However, most of these developments have been carried…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-31 Mehdi Tomas , Mathieu Rosenbaum

We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the driving noise of volatility has fractional scaling, in the "rough" regime of Hurst parameter $H < 1/2$. This regime recently attracted a lot of attention both from the statistical and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-12 Christian Bayer , Peter K. Friz , Archil Gulisashvili , Blanka Horvath , Benjamin Stemper

This paper studies the question of filtering and maximizing terminal wealth from expected utility in a partially information stochastic volatility models. The special features is that the only information available to the investor is the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-28 Dalia Ibrahim , Frédéric Abergel

In this work, we introduce a novel pricing methodology in general, possibly non-Markovian local stochastic volatility (LSV) models. We observe that by conditioning the LSV dynamics on the Brownian motion that drives the volatility, one…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-24 Peter Bank , Christian Bayer , Peter K. Friz , Luca Pelizzari

The volatility characterizes the amplitude of price return fluctuations. It is a central magnitude in finance closely related to the risk of holding a certain asset. Despite its popularity on trading floors, the volatility is unobservable…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Zoltan Eisler , Josep Perello , Jaume Masoliver

In this paper, we consider a stochastic asset price model where the trend is an unobservable Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. We first review some classical results from Kalman filtering. Expectedly, the choice of the parameters is crucial to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-04-21 Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed , Grégoire Loeper , Frédéric Abergel

Fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter $H<\frac{1}{2}$ is used widely, for instance, to describe a 'rough' stochastic volatility process in finance. In this paper, we examine an Ait-Sahalia-type interest rate model driven by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Emmanuel Coffie , Xuerong Mao , Frank Proske

We consider a structural stochastic volatility model for the loss from a large portfolio of credit risky assets. Both the asset value and the volatility processes are correlated through systemic Brownian motions, with default determined by…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Ben Hambly , Nikolaos Kolliopoulos

We consider a large market model of defaultable assets in which the asset price processes are modelled as Heston-type stochastic volatility models with default upon hitting a lower boundary. We assume that both the asset prices and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-15 Ben Hambly , Nikolaos Kolliopoulos

Rough volatility models are becoming increasingly popular in quantitative finance. In this framework, one considers that the behavior of the log-volatility process of a financial asset is close to that of a fractional Brownian motion with…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-17 Eyal Neuman , Mathieu Rosenbaum

In this paper an arbitrage strategy is constructed for the modified Black-Scholes model driven by fractional Brownian motion or by a time changed fractional Brownian motion, when the volatility is stochastic. This latter property allows the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Erhan Bayraktar , H. Vincent Poor

In the information-based approach to asset pricing the market filtration is modelled explicitly as a superposition of signals concerning relevant market factors and independent noise. The rate at which the signal is revealed to the market…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-09-21 Dorje C. Brody , Yan Tai Law