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Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Kirill Fedyanin , Evgenii Tsymbalov , Maxim Panov

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Quantile regression, that is the prediction of conditional quantiles, has steadily gained importance in statistical modeling and financial applications. The authors introduce a new semiparametric quantile regression method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-17 Daniel Kraus , Claudia Czado

Robustness against uncertain and ambiguous inputs is a critical challenge for deep learning models. While recent advancements in large scale vision language models (VLMs, e.g. GPT4o) might suggest that increasing model and training dataset…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Xi Wang , Eric Nalisnick

Assessing the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks is crucial for safety-related applications of deep learning. Although Bayesian deep learning offers a principled framework for estimating model uncertainty, the common approaches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Yookoon Park , David M. Blei

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiment is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-09 Saumya Bhatnagar , Won Chang , Seonjin Kim Jiali Wang

In addition to being extremely non-linear, modern problems require millions if not billions of parameters to solve or at least to get a good approximation of the solution, and neural networks are known to assimilate that complexity by…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-14 Habib Ben Abdallah , Christopher J. Henry , Sheela Ramanna

Effective uncertainty estimation is becoming increasingly attractive for enhancing the reliability of neural networks. This work presents a novel approach, termed Credal-Set Interval Neural Networks (CreINNs), for classification. CreINNs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Kaizheng Wang , Keivan Shariatmadar , Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Fabio Cuzzolin , David Moens , Hans Hallez

Intelligibility and accurate uncertainty estimation are crucial for reliable decision-making. In this paper, we propose EviNAM, an extension of evidential learning that integrates the interpretability of Neural Additive Models (NAMs) with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Sören Schleibaum , Anton Frederik Thielmann , Julian Teusch , Benjamin Säfken , Jörg P. Müller

We present a new approach for predictive modeling and its uncertainty quantification for mechanical systems, where coarse-grained models such as constitutive relations are derived directly from observation data. We explore the use of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-06-24 Daniel Z. Huang , Kailai Xu , Charbel Farhat , Eric Darve

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are powerful black-box predictors that have achieved impressive performance on a wide variety of tasks. However, their accuracy comes at the cost of intelligibility: it is usually unclear how they make their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Rishabh Agarwal , Levi Melnick , Nicholas Frosst , Xuezhou Zhang , Ben Lengerich , Rich Caruana , Geoffrey Hinton

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to perform well on exclusive, multi-class classification tasks. However, when different classes have similar visual features, it becomes challenging for human annotators to differentiate them.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-18 Changbin Li , Kangshuo Li , Yuzhe Ou , Lance M. Kaplan , Audun Jøsang , Jin-Hee Cho , Dong Hyun Jeong , Feng Chen

Advances in deep neural network (DNN) based molecular property prediction have recently led to the development of models of remarkable accuracy and generalization ability, with graph convolution neural networks (GCNNs) reporting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-09 Gabriele Scalia , Colin A. Grambow , Barbara Pernici , Yi-Pei Li , William H. Green

This paper proposes a paradigm of uncertainty injection for training deep learning model to solve robust optimization problems. The majority of existing studies on deep learning focus on the model learning capability, while assuming the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Wei Cui , Wei Yu

While several methods for predicting uncertainty on deep networks have been recently proposed, they do not readily translate to large and complex datasets. In this paper we utilize a simplified form of the Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-05 Nicholas Wilkins , Michael Johnson , Ifeoma Nwogu

We introduce a model-based image reconstruction framework with a convolution neural network (CNN) based regularization prior. The proposed formulation provides a systematic approach for deriving deep architectures for inverse problems with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-06-06 Hemant Kumar Aggarwal , Merry P. Mani , Mathews Jacob

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) are increasingly used as components of larger software systems that need to process complex data, such as images, written texts, audio/video signals. DNN predictions cannot be assumed to be always correct for…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Michael Weiss , Paolo Tonella
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