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To promote precision medicine, individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) are crucial for optimizing the expected clinical outcome based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing ITR research has primarily focused on scenarios…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Chang Wang , Lu Wang

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-07 Lihua Lei , Emmanuel J. Candès

We study the problem of a decision maker who must provide the best possible treatment recommendation based on an experiment. The desirability of the outcome distribution resulting from the policy recommendation is measured through a…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-06 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer , Bezirgen Veliyev

The call for patient-focused drug development is loud and clear, as expressed in the 21st Century Cures Act and in recent guidelines and initiatives of regulatory agencies. Among the factors contributing to modernized drug development and…

Warfarin, a commonly prescribed drug to prevent blood clots, has a highly variable individual response. Determining a maintenance warfarin dose that achieves a therapeutic blood clotting time, as measured by the international normalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-07 Anish Karpurapu , Adam Krekorian , Ye Tian , Leslie M. Collins , Ravi Karra , Aaron Franklin , Boyla O. Mainsah

Many policies involve dynamics in their treatment assignments, where individuals receive sequential interventions over multiple stages. We study estimation of an optimal dynamic treatment regime that guides the optimal treatment assignment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-04 Shosei Sakaguchi

An important objective in the development of targeted therapies is to identify the populations where the treatment under consideration has positive benefit risk balance. We consider pivotal clinical trials, where the efficacy of a treatment…

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xinkun Nie , Stefan Wager

A key challenge in sequential decision making is optimizing systems safely under partial information. While much of the literature has focused on the cases of either partially known states or partially known dynamics, it is further…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-21 Qinyang He , Yonatan Mintz

The goal of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is to infer a reward function that explains the behavior of an agent performing a task. The assumption that most approaches make is that the demonstrated behavior is near-optimal. In many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Luis Haug , Ivan Ovinnikov , Eugene Bykovets

Accurate uncertainty quantification is necessary to enhance the reliability of deep learning models in real-world applications. In the case of regression tasks, prediction intervals (PIs) should be provided along with the deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Giorgio Morales , John W. Sheppard

Traditional approaches to differential privacy assume a fixed privacy requirement $\epsilon$ for a computation, and attempt to maximize the accuracy of the computation subject to the privacy constraint. As differential privacy is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-01 Katrina Ligett , Seth Neel , Aaron Roth , Bo Waggoner , Z. Steven Wu

Decision-making in personalized medicine such as cancer therapy or critical care must often make choices for dosage combinations, i.e., multiple continuous treatments. Existing work for this task has modeled the effect of multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Differential privacy provides a formal framework for releasing statistical estimators that limit how much any single observation can influence the output, by injecting calibrated random noise. We study differentially private estimation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Joowon Lee , Guanhua Chen

The study of a machine learning problem is in many ways is difficult to separate from the study of the loss function being used. One avenue of inquiry has been to look at these loss functions in terms of their properties as scoring rules…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Zac Cranko , Robert C. Williamson , Richard Nock

The US Food and Drug Administration launched Project Optimus with the aim of shifting the paradigm of dose-finding and selection towards identifying the optimal biological dose that offers the best balance between benefit and risk, rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Ying Yuan , Heng Zhou , Suyu Liu

Predicting which action (treatment) will lead to a better outcome is a central task in decision support systems. To build a prediction model in real situations, learning from biased observational data is a critical issue due to the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Akira Tanimoto , Tomoya Sakai , Takashi Takenouchi , Hisashi Kashima

We propose several prediction intervals procedures for the individual treatment effect with either finite-sample or asymptotic coverage guarantee in a non-parametric regression setting, where non-linear regression functions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 Danijel Kivaranovic , Robin Ristl , Martin Posch , Hannes Leeb

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) tailor treatments according to individual patient characteristics. They can significantly improve patient care and are thus becoming increasingly popular. The data collected during randomized clinical…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-30 Stanislav Minsker , Ying-Qi Zhao , Guang Cheng

The progression-free survival ratio (PFSr) is a widely used measure in personalized oncology trials. It evaluates the effectiveness of treatment by comparing two consecutive event times - one under standard therapy and one under an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Merle Munko , Simon Mack , Marc Ditzhaus , Stefan Fröhling , Dennis Dobler , Dominic Edelmann