Related papers: Sharp Calibrated Gaussian Processes
We construct flexible likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian process models that leverage neural networks as components. We make use of sparse variational inference methods to enable scalable approximate inference for the resulting class of…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of…
Bayesian hyperparameter optimization relies heavily on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates, due to robust distributional posteriors and strong performance on limited training samples. GPs however underperform in categorical hyperparameter…
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide flexible distributions over functions, with inductive biases controlled by a kernel. However, in many applications Gaussian processes can struggle with even moderate input dimensionality. Learning a low…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…
We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian variational approximation to the posterior distribution for a high-dimensional parameter, where we impose sparsity in the precision matrix to reflect appropriate conditional independence…
Engineers widely use Gaussian process regression framework to construct surrogate models aimed to replace computationally expensive physical models while exploring design space. Thanks to Gaussian process properties we can use both samples…
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a probabilistic nonparametric representation of functions in regression, classification, and other problems. Unfortunately, exact learning with GPs is intractable for large datasets. A variety of approximate…
Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…
Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…
We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…
Nonparametric Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian processes have recently become popular in the empirical learning community. They encompass many classical methods of statistics, like Radial Basis Functions or various splines, and are…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal…
We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…
Sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs) construct tractable posterior approximations to GP models. At the core of these methods is the assumption that the true posterior distribution over training function values ${\bf f}$ and inducing…
A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…
Being cautious is crucial for enhancing the trustworthiness of machine learning systems integrated into decision-making pipelines. Although calibrated probabilities help in optimal decision-making, perfect calibration remains unattainable,…
Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an…
Multifidelity models integrate data from multiple sources to produce a single approximator for the underlying process. Dense low-fidelity samples are used to reduce interpolation error, while sparse high-fidelity samples are used to…
With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…