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It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-10 Nora Bearth , Michael Lechner

Estimating the joint effect of a multivariate, continuous exposure is crucial, particularly in environmental health where interest lies in simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple environmental pollutants on health. We develop novel…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

Evaluating the causal health effects of multivariate, continuous exposures, such as air pollution mixtures, is a critical public health challenge. A primary obstacle is the frequent violation of the positivity assumption, which renders the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Zhuochao Huang , Kejin Dong , Tuo Lin , Joseph Antonelli

Studies have shown that exposure to air pollution, even at low levels, significantly increases mortality. As regulatory actions are becoming prohibitively expensive, robust evidence to guide the development of targeted interventions to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-20 Kwonsang Lee , Dylan S. Small , Francesca Dominici

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

When exposure measurement error (EME), confounder measurement error (CME), or both are present, health effect estimates regarding exposure mixtures and critical exposure time-window may not represent the true effects. For example, in air…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Honghyok Kim

The impact of wildfire smoke on air quality is a growing concern, contributing to air pollution through a complex mixture of chemical species with important implications for public health. While previous studies have primarily focused on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Dafne Zorzetto , Jenna Landy , Corwin Zigler , Giovanni Parmigiani , Roberta De Vito

In epidemiological studies of air pollution and public health, estimating the health impact of exposure to air pollution may be hindered by the unknown functional form of the exposure-outcome association and by unmeasured confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Carlo Zaccardi , Pasquale Valentini , Luigi Ippoliti , Alexandra M. Schmidt

In health and social sciences, it is critically important to identify subgroups of the study population where there is notable heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) with respect to the population average. Decision trees have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-28 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Riccardo Cadei , Kwonsang Lee , Francesca Dominici

Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Qiao Liu , Wing Hung Wong

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an active area of research. Most of the existing methods, however, focus on estimating the conditional average treatment effects of a single, binary treatment given a set of pre-treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Max Goplerud , Kosuke Imai , Nicole E. Pashley

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Xiaoqing Tan , Chung-Chou H. Chang , Ling Zhou , Lu Tang

The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. The groups can be understood as a broader aggregation of the conditional average treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-03-30 Daniel Jacob

While sample sizes in randomized clinical trials are large enough to estimate the average treatment effect well, they are often insufficient for estimation of treatment-covariate interactions critical to studying data-driven precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-22 Steve Yadlowsky , Fabio Pellegrini , Federica Lionetto , Stefan Braune , Lu Tian

Studying the association between mixtures of environmental exposures and health outcomes can be challenging due to issues such as correlation among the exposures and non-linearities or interactions in the exposure-response function. For…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-15 Jacob Englert , Stefanie Ebelt , Howard Chang

We introduce the SoftBart approach from Bayesian ensemble learning to estimate the relationship between multipollutant mixtures and health on chronic exposures in epidemiology research. This approach offers several key advantages over…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-26 Yu-Chien Ning , Xin Zhou , Francine Laden , Molin Wang

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

In estimating the causal effect of a continuous exposure or treatment, it is important to control for all confounding factors. However, most existing methods require parametric specification for how control variables influence the outcome…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-21 Spencer Woody , Carlos M. Carvalho , P. Richard Hahn , Jared S. Murray

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) plays an essential role in modern medicine by informing treatment decision-making at a patient level. Several metalearners have been proposed recently to estimate CATEs in an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-07 Yizhe Xu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Erik Sverdrup , Scott Fleming , Stefan Wager , Nigam Shah
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