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Statistical hypothesis testing is the central method to demarcate scientific theories in both exploratory and inferential analyses. However, whether this method befits such purpose remains a matter of debate. Established approaches to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-10-29 Orestis Loukas , Ho-Ryun Chung

It is possible to obtain a large Bayes Factor (BF) favoring the null hypothesis when both the null and alternative hypotheses have low likelihoods, and there are other hypotheses being ignored that are much more strongly supported by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-15 Michael Smithson

Statistical analysis is often used to evaluate the evidence for or against scientific hypotheses, and various statistics (e.g., p-values, likelihood ratios, Bayes factors) are interpreted as measures of evidence strength. Here I consider…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-05-30 Veronica J. Vieland

The application of machine learning based decision making systems in safety critical areas requires reliable high certainty predictions. Reject options are a common way of ensuring a sufficiently high certainty of predictions made by the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-17 André Artelt , Roel Visser , Barbara Hammer

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) has long been of central importance to psychology as a science, guiding theory development and underlying the application of evidence-based intervention and decision-making. Recent years, however,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-20 Fintan Costello , Paul Watts

Surrogate data testing is a method frequently applied to evaluate the results of nonlinear time series analysis. Since the null hypothesis tested against is a linear, gaussian, stationary stochastic process a positive outcome may not only…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 J. Timmer

Statistical hypothesis testing, as formalized by 20th Century statisticians and taught in college statistics courses, has been a cornerstone of 100 years of scientific progress. Nevertheless, the methodology is increasingly questioned in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-22 Brian Dennis , Mark L Taper , José M Ponciano

From scientific experiments to online A/B testing, the previously observed data often affects how future experiments are performed, which in turn affects which data will be collected. Such adaptivity introduces complex correlations between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-03 Xinkun Nie , Xiaoying Tian , Jonathan Taylor , James Zou

The assumption of normality has underlain much of the development of statistics, including spatial statistics, and many tests have been proposed. In this work, we focus on the multivariate setting and first review the recent advances in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Wanfang Chen , Marc G. Genton

I present a critique of the methods used in a typical paper. This leads to three broad conclusions about the conventional use of statistical methods. First, results are often reported in an unnecessarily obscure manner. Second, the null…

Applications · Statistics 2013-03-05 Michael Wood

Practical problems with missing data are common, and statistical methods have been developed concerning the validity and/or efficiency of statistical procedures. On a central focus, there have been longstanding interests on the mechanism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-26 Rui Duan , C. Jason Liang , Pamela Shaw , Cheng Yong Tang , Yong Chen

Randomization tests deliver exact finite-sample Type 1 error control when the null satisfies the randomization hypothesis. In practice, achieving these guarantees often requires stronger conditions than the null hypothesis of primary…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-03 Deniz Dutz , Xinyi Zhang

The problem of detecting data anomaly is considered. Under the null hypothesis that models anomaly-free data, measurements are assumed to be from an unknown distribution with some authenticated historical samples. Under the composite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-27 Kursat Rasim Mestav , Lang Tong

Randomization tests allow simple and unambiguous tests of null hypotheses, by comparing observed data to a null ensemble in which experimentally-controlled variables are randomly resampled. In behavioral and neuroscience experiments,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Kenneth D. Harris , Kevin J. Miller

Many statistical methodologies for high-dimensional data assume the population is normal. Although a few multivariate normality tests have been proposed, to the best of our knowledge, none of them can properly control the type I error when…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Hao Chen , Yin Xia

Classification with rejection emerges as a learning paradigm which allows models to abstain from making predictions. The predominant approach is to alter the supervised learning pipeline by augmenting typical loss functions, letting model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-09 Alexander Soen , Hisham Husain , Philip Schulz , Vu Nguyen

We study the binary hypothesis testing problem where an adversary may potentially corrupt a fraction of the samples. The detector is, however, permitted to abstain from making a decision if (and only if) the adversary is present. We…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Malhar A. Managoli , K. R. Sahasranand , Vinod M. Prabhakaran

Despite its common practice, statistical hypothesis testing presents challenges in interpretation. For instance, in the standard frequentist framework there is no control of the type II error. As a result, the non-rejection of the null…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-15 Victor Coscrato , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael Bassi Stern

The controversy about statistical significance vs. scientific relevance is more than 100 years old. But still nowadays null hypothesis significance testing is considered as gold standard in many empirical fields from economics and social…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-23 Uwe Hassler

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Xavier D'Haultfoeuille , Christophe Gaillac , Arnaud Maurel