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Forecasting electricity demand plays a critical role in ensuring reliable and cost-efficient operation of the electricity supply. With the global transition to distributed renewable energy sources and the electrification of heating and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Konstantin Hopf , Hannah Hartstang , Thorsten Staake

Accurate residential load forecasting is critical for power system reliability with rising renewable integration and demand-side flexibility. However, most statistical and machine learning models treat external factors, such as weather,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Haoran Li , Muhao Guo , Marija Ilic , Yang Weng , Guangchun Ruan

According to a conservative estimate, a 1% reduction in forecast error for a 10 GW energy utility can save up to $ 1.6 million annually. In our context, achieving precise forecasts of future power consumption is crucial for operating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Lukas Moosbrugger , Valentin Seiler , Gerhard Huber , Peter Kepplinger

With the ongoing energy transition, power grids are evolving fast. They operate more and more often close to their technical limit, under more and more volatile conditions. Fast, essentially real-time computational approaches to evaluate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-30 Marc Gillioz , Guillaume Dubuis , Philippe Jacquod

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Millend Roy , Vladimir Pyltsov , Yinbo Hu

Keeping the electricity production in balance with the actual demand is becoming a difficult and expensive task in spite of an involvement of experienced human operators. This is due to the increasing complexity of the electric power grid…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-05 Tárik S. Salem , Karan Kathuria , Heri Ramampiaro , Helge Langseth

Time series data is a prevalent form of data found in various fields. It consists of a series of measurements taken over time. Forecasting is a crucial application of time series models, where future values are predicted based on historical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Sahar Koohfar , Wubeshet Woldemariam

We explore the crucial interplay between climate change and power system planning, highlighting the urgent need to systematically integrate climate information into energy system studies. Climate change impacts the energy sector on multiple…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-05 Laurent Dubus , Alberto Troccoli , Aron zuiker , Laurens Stoop

This paper presents a novel approach to electricity price forecasting (EPF) using a pure Transformer model. As opposed to other alternatives, no other recurrent network is used in combination to the attention mechanism. Hence, showing that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Oscar Llorente , Jose Portela

The demand-supply balance of electricity systems is fundamentally linked to climate conditions. In light of this, the present study aims to model the effect of climate change on the European electricity system, specifically on its long-term…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-29 Inès Harang , Fabian Heymann , Laurens P. Stoop

This study investigates two models of varying complexity for optimizing intraday arbitrage energy trading of a battery energy storage system using a model predictive control approach. Scenarios reflecting different stages of the system's…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-23 Martin Cornejo , Melina Graner , Holger Hesse , Andreas Jossen

Future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems will be dominated by renewable energy technologies providing variable supply subject to uncertain weather conditions. For this setting, we propose an algorithm for capacity expansion planning: We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Sebastian Kebrich , Felix Engelhardt , David Franzmann , Christina Büsing , Jochen Linßen , Heidi Heinrichs

This work presents an investigation and assessment framework, which, supported by realistic data, aims at provisioning operators with in-depth insights into the consumer-perceived Quality-of-Experience (QoE) at public Electric Vehicle (EV)…

Accurate load prediction is an effective way to reduce power system operation costs. Traditionally, the mean square error (MSE) is a common-used loss function to guide the training of an accurate load forecasting model. However, the MSE…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-06 Jialun Zhang , Yi Wang , Gabriela Hug

This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-03-03 Salvador Pineda , Juan Miguel Morales , Trine Krogh Boomsma

Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning multiple decades) should be considered. At the same time,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-30 Adriaan P Hilbers , David J Brayshaw , Axel Gandy

The reliability of local power grid infrastructure is challenged by sustainable energy developments increasing electric load uncertainty. Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need load forecasts of higher spatial resolution, extending…

Energy economy optimization (EEO) models employ formal search techniques to explore the future decision space over several decades in order to deliver policy-relevant insights. EEO models are a critical tool for decision-makers who must…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-01-30 Joseph F. DeCarolis , Kevin Hunter , Sarat Sreepathi

In the domain of multivariate forecasting, transformer models stand out as powerful apparatus, displaying exceptional capabilities in handling messy datasets from real-world contexts. However, the inherent complexity of these datasets,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Jingjing Xu , Caesar Wu , Yuan-Fang Li , Pascal Bouvry

Supply and demand in future energy systems depend on the weather. We therefore need to quantify how climate change and variability impact energy systems. Here, we present Climate2Energy (C2E), a framework to consistently convert climate…