Related papers: Computational issues in parameter estimation for h…

Momentum is a popular technique for improving convergence rates during gradient descent. In this research, we experiment with adding momentum to the Baum-Welch expectation-maximization algorithm for training Hidden Markov Models. We compare…

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or…

We present a novel algorithm for learning the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a geometric setting where the observations take values in Riemannian manifolds. In particular, we elevate a recent second-order method of moments…

Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

Missing data is a ubiquitous challenge in data analysis, often leading to biased and inaccurate results. Traditional imputation methods usually assume that the missingness mechanism is missing-at-random (MAR), where the missingness is…

We develop a probabilistic framework for deep learning based on the Deep Rendering Mixture Model (DRMM), a new generative probabilistic model that explicitly capture variations in data due to latent task nuisance variables. We demonstrate…

Ultra-wideband (UWB) multistatic radar can be used for target detection and tracking in buildings and rooms. Target detection and tracking relies on accurate knowledge of the bistatic delay. Noise, measurement error, and the problem of…

Nowadays, neural network models achieve state-of-the-art results in many areas as computer vision or speech processing. For sequential data, especially for Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and their…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

The primary objective of this scholarly work is to develop two estimation procedures - maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of trimmed moments (MTM) - for the mean and variance of lognormal insurance payment severity data sets…

There is an interest to replace computed tomography (CT) images with magnetic resonance (MR) images for a number of diagnostic and therapeutic workflows. In this article, predicting CT images from a number of magnetic resonance imaging…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

This paper uses stochastic dominance principles to construct upper and lower sample path bounds for Hidden Markov Model (HMM) filters. Given a HMM, by using convex optimization methods for nuclear norm minimization with copositive…

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the…

The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…

The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous…

Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the pre-trained fine-tuning paradigm have become pivotal in solving natural language processing tasks, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of…

Unlike the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator for the linear model, a ridge regression linear model provides coefficient estimates via shrinkage, usually with improved mean-square and prediction error. This is true especially when the…