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Accurate evaluation of weather forecasting models is critical for their reliable deployment in real-world applications. However, existing benchmarks predominantly rely on reanalysis products such as ERA5, which are generated through delayed…

Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions.…

Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…

A precise forecast for droughts is of considerable value to scientific research, agriculture, and water resource management. With emerging developments of data-driven approaches for hydro-climate modeling, this paper investigates an…

Deep neural networks have shown great success in many diverse fields. The training of these networks can take significant amounts of time, compute and energy. As datasets get larger and models become more complex, the exploration of model…

Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved…

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge:…

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in…

In situ and remotely sensed observations have potential to facilitate data-driven predictive models for oceanography. A suite of machine learning models, including regression, decision tree and deep learning approaches were developed to…

We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state given the prescribed sea surface temperatures and incoming solar…

Deep learning applied to weather forecasting has started gaining popularity because of the progress achieved by data-driven models. The present paper compares two different deep learning architectures to perform weather prediction on daily…

Extreme precipitation events, such as violent rainfall and hail storms, routinely ravage economies and livelihoods around the developing world. Climate change further aggravates this issue. Data-driven deep learning approaches could widen…

Rapid progress in the field of machine-learning for weather prediction has led to the emergence of algorithms whose forecasting skill can exceed that of traditional physically based models. This development represents an opportunity to…

This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether…

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution…

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections comes from limitations in modelling clouds and in understanding how different cloud types interact with the climate system. A key first step in reducing this…

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of extreme temperature patterns using emerging statistical machine learning techniques. Our research focuses on exploring and comparing the effectiveness of various statistical models for…

Climate models are complicated software systems that approximate atmospheric and oceanic fluid mechanics at a coarse spatial resolution. Typical climate forecasts only explicitly resolve processes larger than 100 km and approximate any…

An exponential growth in computing power, which has brought more sophisticated and higher resolution simulations of the climate system, and an exponential increase in observations since the first weather satellite was put in orbit, are…

We explore the potential of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNNs) for emulating cloud superparameterization in realistic geography, using offline fits to data from the Super Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model. To identify the…