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We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

Ordinal outcomes are common in clinical settings where they often represent increasing levels of disease progression or different levels of functional impairment. Such outcomes can characterize differences in meaningful patient health…

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer causal effects of exposures on an outcome. One key assumption of MR is that the genetic variants used as instrumental variables are independent of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Maximilian M Mandl , Anne-Laure Boulesteix , Stephen Burgess , Verena Zuber

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a popular propensity score (PS)-based approach to estimate causal effects in observational studies at risk of confounding bias. A major issue when estimating the PS is the presence of…

Reliable causal effect estimation from observational data requires adjustment for confounding and sufficient overlap in covariate distributions between treatment groups. However, in high-dimensional settings, lack of overlap often inflates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-21 Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans

Estimating a causal effect from observational data can be biased if we do not control for self-selection. This selection is based on confounding variables that affect the treatment assignment and the outcome. Propensity score methods aim to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-10 Daniel Jacob

While the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a commonly used approach for treatment comparisons in observational data, the resulting estimates may be subject to bias and excessively large variance when there is lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Zhiqiang Cao , Lama Ghazi , Claudia Mastrogiacomo , Laura Forastiere , F. Perry Wilson , Fan Li

Estimating causal effects from observational data is challenging due to selection bias, which leads to imbalanced covariate distributions across treatment groups. Propensity score-based weighting methods are widely used to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Ahmad Saeed Khan , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes Andreas Stork

A basic principle in the design of observational studies is to approximate the randomized experiment that would have been conducted under controlled circumstances. Now, linear regression models are commonly used to analyze observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Ambarish Chattopadhyay , Jose R. Zubizarreta

In causal inference, the Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used to estimate causal effects for estimands within the class of Weighted Average Treatment Effect (WATE). When constructing confidence intervals (CIs),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-14 Shunichiro Orihara

Treatment-induced confounders complicate analyses of time-varying treatment effects and causal mediation. Conditioning on these variables naively to estimate marginal effects may inappropriately block causal pathways and may induce spurious…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-24 Geoffrey T. Wodtke , Zahide Alaca , Xiang Zhou

Collaboration between different data centers is often challenged by heterogeneity across sites. To account for the heterogeneity, the state-of-the-art method is to re-weight the covariate distributions in each site to match the distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-25 Tianyu Guo , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan

While much of the causal inference literature has focused on addressing internal validity biases, both internal and external validity are necessary for unbiased estimates in a target population of interest. However, few generalizability…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-07 Irina Degtiar , Tim Layton , Jacob Wallace , Sherri Rose

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-06 Michelle Leeberg , Xianghua Luo , Thomas A. Murray

Generalized variational inference (GVI) provides an optimization-theoretic framework for statistical estimation that encapsulates many traditional estimation procedures. The typical GVI problem is to compute a distribution of parameters…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-27 Aurya S. Javeed , Drew P. Kouri , Thomas M. Surowiec

In the causal inference literature an estimator belonging to a class of semi-parametric estimators is called robust if it has desirable properties under the assumption that at least one of the working models is correctly specified. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-26 Ingeborg Waernbaum , Laura Pazzagli

Combining information from multiple samples is often needed in biomedical and economic studies, but the differences between these samples must be appropriately taken into account in the analysis of the combined data. We study estimation for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are often considered the gold standard for estimating causal effect, but they may lack external validity when the population eligible to the RCT is substantially different from the target population.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-11 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet , Gaël Varoquaux